Texas State Recap

The Aggies took care of business in their season-opener, coming within 40 seconds of completing a shutout against Texas State. I will preface all of this by saying that because of the vast talent disparity between the two teams on Thursday night, I don’t think we can put too much stock into what we saw, but I will try to glean some highlights and concerns that might carry over.

What I Liked

Kellen Mond looked like he improved from his breakout sophomore campaign last year. He looked more confident in his throws and more accurate, which was put on display with his beautiful 40-yard throw to Jhamon Ausbon after he avoided the sack. The throw was even more impressive since it made him go against his body without his feet set and he still delivered the ball into the perfect location. Even Jimbo commented in the post-game press conference how he was going through his reads much faster which allowed him to not take any sacks.
The defense played tremendous last night. The four interceptions forced were the most in a single game since 2006 vs Texas. It was nice to see the secondary step up and play very well after how bad they were last season, but they will face their toughest test next week trying to corral the Clemson wide receivers. The run defense was still solid as they gave up only 8 yards rushing all night, including -10 in the second half. We knew the defensive line was going to be solid and they looked good in week one.
I thought Buddy Johnson was a guy that really stood out to me. He made plays from sideline to sideline and was physical when filling the gap. He also made a few tackles in space and looked the part of a legitimate SEC linebacker. Anthony Hines looked good in his first game action since he injured his leg last year against Clemson. He showed real burst and speed which he will need to carry on throughout the season.
How about that secondary?? Myles Jones came on strong to end last season with nine pass break-ups and then got two interceptions in game one. Leon O’Neal played all over the field and Demani Richardson got his first game action as he started at safety. I was particularly impressed with how Roney Elam played last night as well. The senior stepped in that nickel spot and got an interception and a sack to go along with five tackles (second leading tackler).
Isaiah Spiller was great in his first ever game as an Aggie. Him and Jashaun Corbin each ran for over 100 yards and might be a great 1-2 punch for the next couple of years. His 85-yard run was the 10^th longest in Aggie football history.
I really liked how Jhamon Ausbon and Quartney Davis stepped up last night and made some big plays with each hauling in a touchdown. Both contributed 6 catches with 75+ yards. They will need to continue to step up and take over for the Sternberger production until the young tight ends get more comfortable in the offense.

What Concerned Me

My number one concern last night was the offensive line. On paper, it looks like they played pretty well as they paved the way for 246 yards rushing and did not give up a sack all night. However, this is where the opponent needs to be taken into consideration. The second drive of the game, it took the Aggies three tries to punch it in from one yard out, including having to bring in 325-pound defensive tackle Bobby Brown as a lead blocker. I would have liked to see us exert our dominance up front and just over talent the Bobcats defense, but that did not happen. They also allowed Mond to get hit several times and looked a little sloppy in slide protections and blitz pickups. Hopefully, after reviewing the film, Jimbo and offensive line coach Josh Henson have lots to coach on this week because you know Clemson’s front four will be MUCH better than what they saw in game one.
The fact that we had two turnovers inside the opponents 10-yard line a red flag for me. The first one was from Kendrick Rogers fighting for extra yardage, so I can’t fault him too much. The second was on a pass from Kellen Mond that he did not put enough touch on and simply threw it into coverage. The painful thing about that turnover was that Corbin was wide open in the flats and might have waltzed into the endzone for an easy score if Kellen was able to make the right read. Again, against Texas State these miscues won’t hurt, but in most games on our schedule, those momentum-changers can lose you a ball game very fast.
The second half was very lackluster overall as the Aggies only managed 13 points on offense and gave up seven to Texas State. It would have been nice to finish things strong and get a lot more backups into the game earlier.

Looking Ahead

It was nice to get a comfortable win in a game that was never in question. Jimbo commented on how smooth the team got in and out of huddles with substitution packages and it was nice to see only three penalties committed by the Maroon and White. But the real games start next week as the Aggies will travel to Death Valley to take on the #1 team in the nation. Clemson rolled over Georgia Tech in their first game 52-14 as running back Travis Etienne (a one-time Aggie commit) averaged over 17 yards per carry and topped the 200-yard mark. Trevor Lawrence did throw two interceptions, but that is the only sliver of weakness that Clemson showed in their opening matchup. Jimbo and the coaching staff kept things pretty vanilla to not give too much away, but next week I look for them to open things up. The offense will use much more formations and play action while the defense will bring a lot more blitzes. Should be a fun one as I will be making the trip out to South Carolina to see this game in person.

Defensive Analysis

The 2018 Aggie defense saw them statistically jump over 40 spots in total defense rankings (from 78^th to 32^nd) and exactly 40 spots in scoring defense (from 87^th to 47^th) giving up almost a touchdown less per game. An integral part of this improvement was due to the fact that Jimbo Fisher’s offense was third in the nation in time of possession, so the defense was simply not asked to defend as many plays in comparison to past years. The two big aspects I want to see improve in 2019 are the passing defense and forcing turnovers. The Aggies had the 98^th ranked passing defense last year and were 109^th in the nation in turnover margin with seven more turnovers lost than the Aggies were able to force.

Defensive Line

In my opinion, the defensive line is the most loaded position group for either side of the ball entering 2019. I think the top end talent is there with preseason first-team All-SEC selection Justin Madubuike, but there is also great depth with guys like sophomore Bobby Brown and junior Jayden Peevy. I think Madubuike can improve on his stellar 2018 campaign in which he had 10.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. If you add in his three sacks that he had negated due to facemask penalties, then his stat line would have been on par with Quinnen Williams, who was the third overall pick in the NFL draft this past season. Add in Bobby Brown and Jayden Peevy (who both would start for almost all 14 SEC teams) and the interior defensive line should be just as stout as last year.

On the outside, Michael Clemons will be looking to replace an NFL draft pick in Kingsely Keke. He certainly meets the eye test measuring in at 6 foot 5 inches and 275 pounds, but he has a little more explosiveness to him than Keke, who was called to play outside last year due to injuries and lack of depth. I think Clemons will actually provide more of a pass rush while still being tough against the run. The other defensive end position is a little more wide open, as it appears redshirt sophomore Tyree Johnson will get the first crack at replacing Landis Durham. While he is not as big as Durham was last year, his 240 pounds and 6-foot 4-inch frame has a little more bend and a quicker burst off the line. If he can get more of a speed rush generated, then that should help Mike Elko pressure the quarterback with just the front four. He will have to hold off sophomore Jeremiah Martin, who is built from the same mold, a fast and explosive defensive end that specializes in pass rushing. The depth at all positions is pretty great as well as there are multiple four-stars that have been in the system for at least a year or longer with guys like Max Wright, Tyree Wilson, and Josh Rogers all being very capable of providing the starters with rest.

X-Factor: I hesitate to say it because of his injury history, but it would go a long way if Michael Clemons is able to stay healthy and live up to the hype he has received. He could help make this year’s defensive line better than last years, which is a tall task.

Name to Remember: Demarvin Leal is one of the other highly rated five stars from the 2019 recruiting class. He is listed as a strong side defensive end but at 290 pounds already, he has the size and athleticism to line up anywhere along the defensive front. Look for him to make a pretty big impact in his first season in the SEC.

Linebackers

The linebackers pose the biggest concern for me on the entire roster. The talent is there at the top with Buddy Johnson (who has really filled out and has the look of an NFL linebacker) and Anthony Hines (former five star that had college offers from every big-time program). My consternation comes from that fact that while these guys are talented, they are inexperienced and are not proven playmakers. Buddy Johnson has played a lot of football over the last two years and even started a few games last season (against Auburn and the bowl game) when Otaro Alaka was hurt. Hines missed most of 2018 when he suffered a season-ending leg injury against Clemson in week two. He showed some flashes of why he was a five star recruit his freshman year, so it will be about getting him back up to speed. The depth will not be as thin as last year but is still not ideal for an SEC West contender. Ikenna Okeke and Aaron Hansford, both guys that were not recruited as linebackers, are learning the position. Pushing them for playing time will be early enrollee Andre White and walk-on linebackers, Keeath Magee II and Braden White. The two walk-ons have pretty significant playing experience as there was no other options last year when we needed to give the starters a break. While talented, this group is lacking in experience that might cost them in crunch time. Linebacker coach Bradley Dale Peveto will have his hands full instructing this group, but the best thing they have working for them is that they will have one of the best defensive fronts on the SEC working in front of them. This should allow for the linebackers to learn early as they are just tasked with cleaning up whatever the front four cannot handle and filling the gaps appropriately.

X-Factor: If Anthony Hines can live up to his high potential, he can wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Look for him to utilize his speed and size to provide a pass rush on third and long scenarios when it is obviously a passing situation.

Name to Remember: True freshman Chris Russell has the size and speed (6 foot 2 inches, 220 pounds, 4.5 in the 40) to make some plays. Look for him to start out on special teams, but maybe even play some meaningful snaps towards the end of the year.

Defensive Backs

The weakest aspect for the Aggies last year will welcome an infusion of young talent to challenge the returning players. While the Aggies return lots of experience in the defensive backfield, it might not be a positive thing as they were one of the worst pass defenses in college football last year (98^th in passing yards allowed and 13.5 yards per completion). This will allow some of the highly rated defensive backs that were recruited in the 2019 class to challenge for immediate playing time. Cornerback Myles Jones started to play decent to end the year and Debione Renfro has been the most consistent corner on campus the past three years. I think they will battle it out for one of the corner spots because the other spot will be locked down by #1 junior college corner Elijah Blades. Another five star in the 2019 class was corner Erick Young. He has the size of a safety, but his ball skills and coverage ability might just force him on the field at the rover position (similar to a nickel corner) because he can play in the box to stop the run but also stick with any receiver or tight end on the field.

At safety, the Aggies will be looking for some dynamic playmakers. It looks like they might have found one with sophomore Leon O’Neal. He started in the bowl game and looked great. Now it will be about replicating that over a full season. The other spot will be up for grabs among Keldrick Carper, Derrick Tucker, and Larry Pryor. They all have significant playing experience but haven’t shown enough over the last few years to really make anyone feel good with them back there. Derrick Tucker showed great promise his freshman year in 2017 but looked lost on the field last year and missed several tackles at the worst times it seemed. If he doesn’t get back on track quickly, then one of the talented true freshman will be eager to make their presence known. Both Brian Williams and Demani Richardson have the talent and acumen to start for this defense but it is never a good idea to have a freshman as the last line of defense, especially against the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Jake Fromm. Count me in the skeptical category for this group, but the talent will definitely be upgraded in comparison to last year. After all, it can’t get much worse.

X-Factor: If Elijah Blades can decidedly take over one of the corner spots and provide decent pass coverage on one side of the field, that can make a world of difference for the Aggie defense in 2019. This will allow all the other defensive backs to battle it out for one more corner spot, hopefully allowing talent to win out and make for a vastly improved secondary this season.

Name to Remember: Demani Richardson will be a force to be reckoned with in College Station during his career here and I think it starts this season. I think he has the speed and coverage skills to start by the Auburn game opposite Leon O’Neal. The aspect that will make him a true playmaker on the back end though will be his ball-hawking mentality. Whether he is turning a contested catch into an interception or coming up to deliver a big blow and force a fumble, I think he has the potential to make an impact this season.

Offensive Analysis

The 2019 Aggies will be looking to improve on an offense that was ranked 15^th in the nation last year in total yards per game. They had the leading rusher in the SEC and an All-American, record-setting tight end, but struggled to make the most of their redzone chances. The hope that is with their quarterback, four offensive lineman, and top three receivers returning, this offense can take a step forward from a solid first year under Jimbo Fisher.

Quarterback/Running Back

The Aggies will be starting a returning upperclassman at quarterback for the first time in eight years since entering the SEC (Trevor Knight was a senior, but only spent one year with the Aggies). Jimbo will now be able to open up the playbook even more since Mond will be in his second full year in the offense. Throughout spring ball and even fall practice, Fisher has praised Mond’s improvement on the mental aspects that are required to be the quarterback of this offense. With now a full season and second offseason under his belt with one of the best quarterback coaches in the game, the junior quarterback’s understanding and timing within the plays should be noticeably better. Look for Kellen Mond to be more decisive with the ball instead of holding on to it and taking unnecessary sacks. He also needs to realize when a play breaks down, it is better to throw the ball away than to the other team. If he is willing to take off and use his legs to pick up some positive yards when the first few reads are not there, this will help stress the defense as well. I expect Kellen Mond to improve his stats and throw for 3500+ yards, 28 TDs, 7 or less interceptions, and 500ish rushing yards. Throw in a completion percentage north of 62% and I think this is a manageable expectation (3,107 yards, 24 TDs/9 interceptions, 57% completion percentage, 474 yards rushing) for him to attain this year.

The backup job is an intriguing battle as redshirt sophomore Connor Blumrick, redshirt freshman James Foster, and true freshman Zach Calzada are fighting for the number two quarterback position. From reports around fall camp, Blumrick, who is a gifted runner and has great arm strength, has been taking a lot of snaps with the second team. By the end of the year, I think Calzada and his elite arm strength will impress Fisher enough for him to be the backup to Kellen Mond.

Replacing the leading rusher in the SEC and the top single season effort in school history will not be easy, but the Aggies do have some talent in the pipeline. Sophomore Jashaun Corbin will be taking a majority workload and has drawn rave reviews from his head coach. As great as Trayveon Williams was last season, I actually believe Corbin to be a more fluid runner and be more of a “home-run threat.” He is also a great receiver out of the backfield and has the ability to bust a big play anytime he touches the ball (just look at his kickoff return to open the game against Arkansas last year). My biggest area of concern is whether he can adequately replace the tough running that Trayveon displayed so often last year, especially when it matters most. The second area that Williams will be missed is in the pass-blocking schemes. He was great at picking up blitzes so it will be imperative for Corbin to learn that aspect quickly. While Trayveon received a bulk of the plays, I expect a little more distribution among a crowded backfield this year. The race for those extra carries is tight as big back Cordarrian Richardson (UCF transfer, 240 pounds) and Isaiah Spiller will be fighting with spring ball standouts Deneric Prince and Jacob Kibodi.

X-Factor: I think Kellen Mond is the most important player on offense for this upcoming season. If he makes those marginal improvements in his game, he can lead one of the top offenses in the country to one or two big time upsets:

Name to Remember: Cordarrian Richardson will be hungry to play after sitting out the 2018 season since he transferred from UCF. As the largest running back on the roster, he could be vital in goal line and short yardage plays, as well as line up as fullback.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

The three returning junior receivers spearhead the passing attack and each brings their own unique skillset to the team. Jhamon Ausbon is a reliable guy who routinely moves the chain on crucial third downs. With him slimming down and dropping 10-15 pounds, he should gain a step and be faster in and out of breaks. Quartney Davis had a breakout season in 2018 as he tallied seven touchdowns and 585 receiving yards in his first year. He is the one who runs best with ball in his hands and can add the most after the catch. The third of the trio is Kendrick Rogers. When he wasn’t battling injuries, he was making circus catches against LSU and Clemson. He should be the go-to receiver in the redzone as he can use his big frame to overmatch defensive backs. The key for this group will be staying healthy as Jhamon missed a few games last season, and Kendrick Rogers has missed a lot of fall camp with nagging injuries. There is talent behind them as redshirt freshman Caleb Chapman has been working with the first team in Roger’s absence. Another big receiver at 6 foot 5 inches, he might be used inside as a mismatch on a slower linebacker or safety, or on the outside where he can out-jump any corner. Cameron Buckley has also been known to make big time catches in key moments but will need to be more consistent as he has battled drops throughout his career. The wild card in this group could be a couple of true freshman in Dylan Wright and Ainias Smith. While Wright is a top rated, big-bodied receiver who is very athletic, I have heard great things about shifty Ainias Smith. He was a high priority for head man Jimbo Fisher on the recruiting front and is pretty electric out of the slot. Offensive Coordinator Darrell Dickey could get pretty creative in how he uses him, and he might just make an impact in the return game as well.

Replacing All-American tight end Jace Sternberger will be a tall task. The hope is that the receiving corps can take on some of his production and the rest can be picked up by a young, but talented group of tight ends. Sophomore Glenn Beal will not be the receiving threat that Sternberger was but is an upgrade in the blocking game. With five-star Baylor Cupp expected to miss significant time with a lower leg injury, true freshman Jalen Wydermyer will be counted on to play a role in the passing game. Jimbo likes to use lots of two tight end sets in his offense, so we will see if Cupp’s injury decreases this, or if they will use Camron Horry to help out. I think Jalen Wydermyer has the talent and athleticism to make some big plays, it just depends on how quickly he can learn the offense.

X-Factor: If Quartney Davis can build on his breakout 2018 campaign, he can push for 1,000 yards receiving.

Name to Remember: Caleb Chapman/Jalen Preston; Chapman was set to start last year before an injury derailed his season. If Kendrick Rogers can’t stay healthy, look for him to step up. I am also high on sophomore Jalen Preston. He didn’t make a huge impact last year even though he was one of the top players in the state of Texas as a recruit, but now that he understands the offense better, his talent might force his way onto the field.

Offensive Line

The Aggies return four offensive linemen with significant starting experience including both their starting tackles. The big question will be who replaces Eric McCoy, who left early for the NFL draft. Junior Ryan McCollum will be given the first crack at that task as he won Spring MVP for his efforts during Spring ball. If he can just be good, not great like McCoy, then I think the offensive line will be stronger this year. The simple facts are, they will not be facing a record number of first round draft picks on the defensive lines they see this year. Also, the trial by fire method should make them all better after having gone against some of the best in the game last season. With Dan Moore and Carson Green manning the tackle spots, Jared Hocker healthy again and playing left guard, and then McCollum seizing the Center role, the only spot left is right guard. This looks like it will be filled by true freshman Kenyon Green. He was ranked as the number three overall prospect by ESPN in the 2019 recruiting rankings. That is not the third best lineman, that is third best overall player. This will allow the Aggies to employ five 300+ pounders along the front which is what you want in the SEC. I expect this group to be stronger in 2019, giving Mond more time to throw, and still opening up plenty of running lanes.

X-Factor: How effectively can Ryan McCollum take over for the best center to suit up for the Aggies?

Name to Remember: Kenyon Green will eventually be a first-round pick at tackle, but he might follow the same career path as former first-rounder Cedric Ogbuehi, who started out inside before transitioning out to tackle.

2019 Schedule Breakdown (Part IV)

The last 3 games on the Aggies schedule include two of the toughest games they have all year. Ending the year with road games in Athens, Georgia and Baton Rouge, Louisiana against two teams starting the season ranked in the top 10.

As a reminder, I have included last season’s statistics for each team. In addition, I have included their returning production to gauge how much of their talent, or lack thereof, they return. For a point of reference Texas A&M’s stats would read:

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 471.6 YPG (15^th in the nation) Total Defense 384.4 YPG (32^nd)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 62% returning (71^st in the nation) Defense 49% (108^th)

South Carolina 11/16

2018 Season Record: 7-6 (9^th in SEC)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 425.6 YPG (43^rd) Total Defense 424.3 (84^th)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 68% (51^st) Defense 64% (64^th)

South Carolina might be the only team that has a more difficult schedule than Texas A&M this season. An up-and-down 2018 ended with them getting shut out in the Belk Bowl and losing to a very average Virginia squad. Losing their most dynamic playmaker on offense certainly won’t help as do-it-all wide receiver and electric kick returner Deebo Samuel has departed for the NFL. The Gamecocks will be returning a quarterback in Jake Bentley that has started since the middle of the 2016 season. They are hoping all that experience pays off this year as he has some starts where he looks like a game-changer (Clemson 2018, 510 passing yards and 5 TDs), but then other times he is very turnover-prone. On defense, the loss of linebacker Skai Moore will certainly be felt, but Muschamp is a defensive-minded coach and feels this might be the most talented defense he has fielded while in Columbia.

The Aggies played one of their worst games of the year in Columbia last season dropping several passes while playing sloppy overall. Despite the poor effort, they still managed to pull out the win. This year, I don’t expect the game to be that close. While the South Carolina defense will be stingy, I fully trust that Jimbo and Mond will be able to move the football and score some points. After all, Mond threw for 353 yards against them last season. By this point in the year, defensive coordinator Mike Elko will have found his best 11 defenders and will be able to utilize their natural abilities to get the most out of our defense.

Prediction: Aggies win convincingly in their last home game of the season, 31-17

@ Georgia 11/23

2018 Season Record: 11-3 (2^nd SEC)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 464.9 YPG (18^th) Total Defense 314.3 YPG (13^th)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 53% (99^th) Defense 72% (36^th)

The Georgia Bulldogs ended their 2018 season on a sour note, losing their last two games while missing out on the playoffs. Once again they outplayed Alabama but wound up on the losing side of the scoreboard. In 2019, they will look to bounce back led by junior quarterback Jake Fromm. The last two seasons has seen Fromm guide his team to a 24-5 record. He and the rest of the Bulldog team will be tested again this year as they have to replace lots of players that departed for the NFL. Head coach Kirby Smart will also be tasked with replacing both his offensive and defensive coordinators as well. The biggest area of concern might be at wide receiver, where Fromm lost his top three receivers from last year. To help ease the burden, the Bulldogs will be leaning on an offensive line that returns all five starters and three straight top-3 recruiting classes.

This game will be a tough matchup for the Aggies as they will have to go to a very hostile environment in Sanford Stadium. Assuming both teams are healthy, the Georgia Bulldogs will likely be leaning on a devastating ground game to move the ball. They will be looking to rely on the best offensive line in the SEC to ground and pound teams into submission. This will perfectly set up the play action pass for Fromm. To defend this, the Aggies will have to play very physical in the trenches to stop the run, but also be disciplined enough on the back end to not get too focused on the run and let a deep pass go right over their heads. This has all the makings of an old-fashioned SEC slugfest, something Jimbo Fisher has been preparing his team for. Look for defensive coordinator Mike Elko to sell out to stop the run by bringing down the “rover” position he uses as an extra defender in the box.

For the Aggies offensive game plan, I think Jimbo will look to exploit the Bulldog defense’s weaknesses. They are returning most of their secondary so it will be imperative that Kellen Mond not try to do too much and force the ball into tight windows or throw it to the other team while under duress. With 23 games under his belt in the Jimbo offensive scheme, he should be fairly comfortable and know at what point in the game and where on the field he can take his chances. Forcing the Georgia defense to also defend his running ability will create more room for the Aggie offense as well. The front seven for Georgia is thought to be a weakness of sorts, but in reality, they will still rate in the top three or four in the league. The real area of concern last year for the Bulldogs was their inability to rush the passer and at times, stop the run.

The key area where the Aggies will have a significant advantage will be on the sidelines. Instead of replacing his departed coordinators with proven coaches, Kirby Smart promoted from within. I have no doubts that Jimbo will have a great game plan ready to attack the Georgia defense. It will be interesting to see if Kirby Smart and company have a good plan ready to stop us, or if they are just relying on their talent advantage. Lastly, Jimbo Fisher is a much better game day coach than Kirby Smart. He has shown to be one of the nation’s top recruiters but has made several questionable calls in close games throughout his brief coaching career. If I were to rank this game among the “Big Four” on the schedule, I would say it is an easier (very relative term) game than Clemson or Alabama. However, there is good reason that we will be underdogs going into this game as Athens is a tough place to win and Georgia will most likely be a top five team.

Prediction: Aggies hang tough and give Georgia all they want but come up just short 28-24.

@LSU 11/30

2018 Season Record: 10-3 (3^rd in SEC West)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 401.2 YPG (68^th) Total Defense 338.7 YPG (25^th)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 82% (12^th) Defense 70% (49^th)

The Tigers will be changing up their offensive philosophy for the 2019 season. We have heard for years that their offense would be brought into the modern age with more downfield passing concepts, but this time, it appears they are serious. They brought in Joe Brady, who was the passing game coordinator for Drew Brees and the Saint’s prolific offense. They have said they are completely changing it up and going with a spread offense with hurry-up tendencies. This all seems like a good idea on paper, but that is not the style of play that LSU has recruited for and head coach Ed Orgeron has yet to give his play caller complete autonomy to do what he pleases. The biggest concern for the Tigers running this style of offense will be the toll it might take on the defense. Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda has consistently fielded one of the top defenses in the county year after year, but a lot of that is because they can play a physical style of defense and know that they will not be asked to play over 65 plays per game. With a quick, no huddle offense, will it have an effect throughout the season if the offense goes three and out and only takes 45 seconds off the clock and puts the defense right back out on the field? Only time will tell but count me as skeptical of the new offense down on the Bayou.

The Tigers return their starting quarterback in Joe Burrow for this season. He really started to come on as a playmaker down the stretch stepping up his game against A&M and against UCF. In this new offense, he will be asked to do much more than last season, and I think this will play into Mike Elko’s hands on defense. After having a full season worth of film on this new offense and how Joe Burrow operates in it, I expect Elko to have a good plan to shut him down. Most likely he will use his rover position or one of his athletic linebackers (Anthony Hines would be my guess) to spy Burrow and mirror his every move. This will hopefully put a stop to the Burrow scrambles that were so effective in College Station last year. As far as other skill positions, there is not much on that side of the ball that scares me from either the receivers or running backs. But that offensive line will still be made up of top end talent that loves to flex their dominance.

The real strength of the LSU team comes from the defense, just like in year’s past. While they do lose linebacker Devin White (5^th overall pick in NFL draft), they have another playmaker in safety Grant Delpit. This guy is a true game-changer on the back end of Aranda’s defense and can wreak havoc with turnovers. Jimbo Fisher and Kellen Mond will attack him by forcing Aranda to use him in Cover 1 defenses. This means he is the only safety deep and cannot cover the entire field by himself. In order for this to be effective, they will need to get positive yards from the ground game going on offense to force LSU to bring their second safety down into the box to help stop the run. Watching Jimbo call plays in that seven overtime thriller last year, you could see just how brilliant he was at setting up defenses and executing the right play at the perfect moment. This will be a very intense game as you can bet the crazy Cajuns have not forgot how last year ended, and even Ed Orgeron has said they have had this game circled on their calendar since they left College Station nine months ago. I think the Aggies have the team to go toe-to-toe with Alabama and LSU this season. While the Tigers are not quite as good as the Crimson Tide, playing them in such a hostile environment will be awfully tough. I predict we can take one of those two games, but not both. Since I already predicted us to lose to Alabama at home, a win here would cap off the year.

Prediction: Aggies win another thriller, 34-31.

This means my final record prediction for the Aggies is going to be 9-3. I feel good about the Aggies chances of taking one of the big four games and holding on for the rest. The key factor will be if they can take two of the big four and also if they can actually win all the rest of the games they are favored in. Optimistic approach says 10-2, but don’t take care of business in the games against the Mississippi schools or Auburn and 8-4 or 7-5 could happen as well.

2019 Schedule Breakdown (Part III)

Today marks the back half of the schedule breakdown. So far, I have predicted the Aggies to go 4-2 with losses to Clemson and Alabama.

As a reminder, I have included last season’s statistics for each team. In addition, I have included their returning production to gauge how much of their talent, or lack thereof, they return. For a point of reference Texas A&M’s stats would read:

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 471.6 YPG (15^th in the nation) Total Defense 384.4 YPG (32^nd)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 62% returning (71^st in the nation) Defense 49% (108^th)

@Ole Miss 10/19

2018 Season Record: 5-7 (6^th in SEC West)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 510.5 YPG (9^th) Total Defense 483.4 YPG (121^st)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 30% (130^th) Defense 71% (41^st)

The big news from the Ole Miss offseason is the hiring of two new coordinators. On the offensive side of the ball, they hired former Michigan and Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez to bring in his run-oriented spread offense. On the flip side, they hired another big name in Mike MacIntyre (National Coach of the Year at Colorado in 2016) to take over the defense. Both coaches will be stepping into a sticky situation in Oxford, as the Rebels are just now coming off their penalties for “lack of institutional control” under former head coach Hugh Freeze from 2013-2015. The calling card for this Ole Miss team the past several years has been a high-powered offense. While they were one of the most explosive offenses in the country, they will have to replace a majority of their starters. Gone is Jordan Ta’amu and the three leading receivers from last years team (A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and Demarkus Lodge). All three were NFL draft picks, along with left tackle Greg Little. Replacing all that departed talent would be difficult for any team, let alone one that has had recruiting issues since the NCAA sanctions were handed down. The new quarterback will be redshirt freshman Matt Corral, who played some last season and looked promising. In the new offensive scheme, he will be asked to carry the ball more and use his legs to really open up the offense. Replacing all that NFL talent and installing a slightly different playbook with a freshman quarterback could spell trouble for the Rebels in 2019. I still think they will be good on that side of the ball, but not like in year’s past.

Flip to the defensive side of the ball and we have the exact opposite issue. Lots of returning players coming back, but they were lacking in talent as they were one of the worst statistical defenses in all of college football. Add in the fact that they will be transitioning from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defensive scheme, and it will probably be another year where opposing teams will put up lots of yards and points on the Ole Miss defense. This will be the first year that Ole Miss can even be eligible for a bowl game since 2016, but it might not matter, as the road to six wins and bowl eligibility will be very tough.

I expect the 2019 matchup between the Aggies and Rebels to be a little more one-sided than in 2018, when A&M actually trailed 21-14 early in the third quarter. Thanks to 268 yards on the ground, 228 of which came from workhorse Trayveon Williams, the Aggies were able to come out on top 38-24. Look for the stable of Aggie running backs to have another big game, topping 200 yards on the ground. Big plays will be happening on both sides of the ball in this one, but there should be a substantial amount more for the visiting team in Oxford that night. This will be the first of two straight games against the Mississippi schools and the Aggies must win both games. They have not been able to sweep the state since Johnny Manziel left in 2013. That has to change for the Aggies to continue their climb up the pecking order in the SEC.

Prediction: Aggies control the game throughout, winning 48-21.

Mississippi State 10/26

2018 Season Record: 8-5 (4^th in SEC West)

2018 Stats: Total Offense 397.4 YPG (70^th) Total Defense 263.1 YPG (1^st)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 59% (81^th) Defense 56% (90^th)

The 2018 Mississippi State Bulldogs had an up-and-down season. Their season really turned around when new head coach Joe Moorhead stopped trying to win games with Nick Fitzgerald’s arm, and cut him loose to do what he does best; physically run the ball over defenders. Unfortunately for the Aggies, this revelation happened the week that Texas A&M came to Starkville. Going up against the best defense statistically that Jimbo Fisher and company saw all year, there was not much opportunity for anything offensively in this game. There was no room for Williams to run free, Kellen Mond made some poor choices and overthrows, and he was not helped out at all by his receivers as they dropped more than five passes in crucial situations. Despite all of this, the Aggies had the ball down 21-13 with less than 5 minutes in the game and a chance to tie. Inside the 30 yard line, Kellen Mond could not convert on fourth down and turned the ball over. It was an especially tough pill to swallow because the Aggies had just come off their bye week and had that extra week to prepare. After seeing where Mississippi State finished in the season’s final defensive rankings (ahead of Alabama, Clemson, and LSU) and seeing that they had three first rounders on defense, it made it a little more bearable.

The 2019 Bulldogs will be another tough team to predict. They lose so much talent on defense that they will assuredly take a step back there. On offense, they bring in graduate transfer Tommy Stevens, who was the backup to Trace McSorley at Penn State for the past three seasons. Two of those years, he was right in the middle of Joe Moorhead’s offense, so it will all be very familiar for him. He is a big guy checking in at 6-4, 230 pounds and very athletic. So much so in fact, that to get him on the field, he would line up at receiver while with the Nittany Lions. Mississippi State will be trying the same thing that LSU did last season; nab a BIG 10 backup QB to come in and secure the starting spot. He will be battling it out with Keyonte Thompson, a senior who accounted for 10 TDs last season.

Having this game in College Station will undoubtedly help the Aggies. I am expecting a much more balanced attack from the offense in this one as they should have an easier time moving the ball since the Bulldogs lost so much on defense. Meanwhile, our defense should be rounding into form by this game. Either the returning players in the secondary will have stepped their game up, or the talented true freshman will have played their way into a prominent role in the defensive backfield. I fully expect one of either Demani Richardson or Brian Williams (both safeties) to be playing several snaps per game at this point. With the Aggies nearing the 2/3 point of the season, it is time for the playmakers to make themselves known. The defense will put in a solid effort that allows the offense time to find its groove as the Aggies finally beat both schools from the state of Mississippi.

Prediction: A tight one throughout the first three quarters before the Aggies ice the game away 27-14.

UTSA 11/2

2018 Season Record: 3-9 (11^th in Conference USA)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 247.1 YPG (129^th dead last in FBS) Total Defense: 435.5 YPG (96^th)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 66% (58^th) Defense 51% (103^rd)

There is really not much more I can add to those putrid stats above. This was the worst offense in all of college football last year and it doesn’t look to get much better this season. They do welcome in LSU transfer QB Lowell Narcisse, but behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, it might not matter who is taking the snaps as they will be running for their lives the entire season. Look for the Aggies to use this as a nice break in the middle of their tough schedule. Coming off of three straight games versus SEC West foes and a bye week to follow this game, it will be a nice opportunity to get people healthy and play some of the younger players. The starters should play just one or two drives total in the second half, and we can watch the talented players from the 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes that we have yet to see get some valuable playing experience in this one.

Prediction: Aggies win in their first shutout under Jimbo Fisher, 45-0.

2019 Schedule Breakdown (Part II)

This is the second part in a four-part series breaking down the Aggies 2019 Schedule. To view the rest of the series, check out the Blog archives.

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 471.6 YPG (15^th in the nation) Total Defense 384.4 YPG (32^nd)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 62% returning (71^st in the nation) Defense 49% (108^th)

Auburn (9/21)

2018 Season Record: 8-5 (5^th in SEC West)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 389.9 YPG (78^th) Total Defense 355.4 YPG (38^th)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 54% (95^th) Defense 67% (59^th)

This is the start of one of the two most important three game stretches on the schedule for the Aggies. Swing game number one will be when the Auburn Tigers come rolling into town with head coach Gus Malzahn already on a hot seat. They will also be battle tested early in the season as they will matchup against Oregon in week one at Cowboys Stadium. The biggest question facing the Tigers this season (besides if Gus Malzahn is getting fired) is who will replace Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, who departed for the NFL. True freshman Bo Nix, who is ranked as the #1 dual threat QB in the 2019 recruiting class by 247 sports, will be competing with redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood. Both quarterbacks can run pretty well, which is a necessity in Malzahn’s offense. The new quarterback will have all five offensive linemen from last year returning as well as JaTarvious Whitlow in the backfield. Last year, the rushing offense was very subpar for a normally high-powered Malzahn offense. They ranked 68^th in yards per game on the ground, but if Whitlow can stay healthy, he can be a 1,000 yard rusher. Some playmakers will have to step up in several key spots for this offense to take a step forward.

The defense will once again be the strong point for this Auburn team. Having three defensive linemen forego the NFL draft to return for their senior seasons certainly helps. One of those linemen is All SEC and future first-round draft pick, Derrick Brown. The defensive front will have to anchor this team, because they have to replace all three linebackers.

This game is where we really get a feel for where the Aggies could be headed in 2019. After winning the two easy games, and likely losing to Clemson, a lot will be at stake in this one. I predict both teams will be coming in with a 2-1 record and looking to get this season on track. Last season, the Aggies completely dominated the game for the better part of 53 minutes, but had a bad stretch of football at the worst time to let a win slip away. This year, Jimbo and his team will be trying to make history; getting the first win over Auburn at Kyle Field. In order for that to happen, the Aggies will have to be able to move the ball on the ground against that ferocious front four that Auburn possesses. Getting Auburn to respect the run will help the Aggie offense stay ahead of the chains and not face many third-and-long situations. Also, being able to open up the play-action pass will help Kellen Mond be able to complete some passes downfield. On the defensive side of the ball, look for Mike Elko to really confuse whichever young quarterback will be taking the snaps. Neither player will have extensive college experience so this will play right into what Elko wants to do by bringing pressure from all directions. Hopefully, the Aggie defense can force them into some “freshman mistakes” and get a few turnovers to give the offense a shorter field to work with. This will be the first of many important games that will dictate how the rest of the 2019 season will unfold, so I am glad we get to play it at home in front of the 12^th man.

Prediction: Aggies control a close game throughout and end up hanging on this year, winning 31-20.

Arkansas 9/28 (Arlington)

2018 Season Record: 2-10 (Last in SEC West)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 466.2 YPG (17^th) Total Defense 413.2 YPG (79^th)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 64% (63^rd) Defense 60% (79^th)

Arkansas had a rough first year under new coach Chad Morris, going winless in SEC play. It was going to be a rough transition going from Bret Bilemna’s physical, grind-it-out style of football to Morris’s hurry-up, quick-tempo offense he likes to run. He has since brought in his old quarterback from when he coached at SMU in 2017 with grad transfer Ben Hicks and also grabbed Nick Starkel from Texas A&M. While Ben Hicks is more familiar with the offense having been in Chad’s system for two years while at SMU, I think it is a matter of time before the job is Nick Starkel’s. His arm talent is elite and once he gets a better grasp of the playbook, he should be the one taking snaps. The question will be, canhe be the starter by the time these teams square off in Arlington at the end of September. If he is, then you can make it another Razorback with an Aggie connection and an axe to grind for this game. It is no secret that the folks in Fayetteville badly want to win this game, perhaps more than any other on their schedule, as they have not defeated the Aggies since we moved to the SEC seven years ago. Potentially both the starting quarterback and running back (Rakeem Boyd, of Last Chance U fame) will have been on the A&M roster at one point. Throw in the fact that Chad Morris graduated from Texas A&M and felt passed over when we hired Jimbo Fisher instead of him. Couple that with the fact that our former defensive coordinator John Chavis felt hurt from not being retained by Fisher when he arrived in College Station, and there seems to be lots of bad blood brewing under the surface. This game has routinely been closer than many would have predicted with three out of the last five games going to overtime.

This year, I think the game won’t be as tense down the stretch as we are able to pull away late and put this game away mid-way through the fourth quarter. I think the offense will have no problems putting up points on John Chavis’s aggressive and attacking defense. While his style of play can lead to some big plays in the form of sacks and tackles for a loss, Aggies know all too well that it can leave you vulnerable to the big play at the worst possible moment. Add in the fact that the hurry-up offense will leave the defense feeling gassed by the start of the fourth quarter, and that leaves them primed for Jimbo and Darrell Dickey to take advantage. As long as Kellen can take care of the ball and not try to force throws when they are not there, then this should a high-scoring shoot-out. While the Aggie defense played well last year, I think they give up a few more points in this one, but still make enough key plays to come out on the winning side for the 8^th year in a row.

Prediction: A tight game throughout the first half ends in another Texas A&M win, 42-28.

Alabama 10/12

2018 Season Record: 14-1 (SEC Champion, lost to Clemson in National Championship)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 522 YPG (6^th) Total Defense 319.5 YPG (16^th)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 67% (54^th) Defense 59% (80^th)

There is no way around it; I don’t think anyone saw the Crimson Tide losing by four touchdowns in the National Championship game. It was the largest loss that Nick Saban has endured while in Tuscaloosa. Tua Tagovailoa looked very pedestrian in the game after looking like he was the run-away Heisman winner for most of the season. I think a lot of his play was due to nagging injuries, but the outcome was shocking nonetheless. A revenge tour is most likely to occur this year, as Alabama is primed to run through their weak regular season schedule with very little resistance. With the talent level that the Crimson Tide have, it will have to take opposing team’s absolute best efforts on that day, and in all likelihood, a few mistakes from Alabama for them to suffer a loss. With Alabama returning the best quarterback in school history, the best wide receiving corps in the country, and plenty of five star recruits ready to take over for departed starters, this offense will still be the most explosive in the SEC. Two burning questions for this year’s squad will be how they improve the defense after a good season, but not showing the typical dominance displayed by a Saban defense. The other issue will be how the Tide handles another year with plenty of coaching turnover again. Nick Saban will be replacing seven assistant coaches, including both his offensive and defensive coordinators. Ultimately, the head man has been able to keep this machine rolling for the most part, but I think we are starting to see signs of long-term issues coming in as this will be new coordinators on both sides of the ball for the third consecutive season. All of this change can make it very hard to have continuity for the players and team in general, even for someone as great as Nick Saban.

The path to the coveted SEC Championship game will run through Tuscaloosa for the foreseeable future. That alone will always make this a marquee matchup for Texas A&M. Add in the fact that they are routinely ranked in the top three whenever we faceoff and that just adds intrigue to the game. That is why Jimbo Fisher is using this game as his big recruiting weekend, much like he did last year with the Clemson game. The top recruits from the state of Texas, and from across the countries, will be in town to witness a truly one-of-a-kind home environment. I am hopeful this will be a night game (although it could be picked as CBS 2:30 game of the week) so that we can all get the full effect of Kyle Field.

Nick Saban is busy keeping his dynasty rolling, but I firmly believe he continually keeps one eye over his shoulder at a hard-charging Jimbo Fisher. This game should be much closer than last year’s 45-23 outcome. It will also help that the Jimbo will have an extra week to prepare as the bye week falls right in front of this matchup. For the Aggies to take down Alabama for the second time since they joined the SEC, they will need a near flawless performance from Kellen Mond. If you look at Alabama’s losses since their rise to prominence in 2009, most have come at the hands of a dynamic playmaker that was taking snaps. From Johnny Manziel, to Trevor Knight having the game of his life, to Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence besting the Tide for a national title, they all turned in epic performances. There will likely not be much room to run with Jashaun Corbin on the ground so Mond will have to make plays with his legs as well as completing passes down the field. He has shown the ability to come up big when it matters most, from the Florida game his freshman season, to Clemson and LSU games last season. The defense will have its hands full trying to stop one of the best offenses in college football, but Clemson laid out a decent blueprint in the title game. While they gave up lots of yards between the 20s, they stiffened once Alabama got inside the redzone. Using a brilliant disguise of zone coverage, press-man coverage, and of course, that relentless defensive front four, they were able to keep Tua from ever getting truly comfortable.

While they are still the best team in college football over the last decade, they are not immune to defeat. I think the Aggies can win two out of three of the incredibly tough SEC West matchups next season between Auburn, Alabama, and LSU. I have a very good feeling that Jimbo will be the first former Nick Saban assistant to finally beat him; and it may just happen in a program-changing win at Kyle Field in October of this year. Out of the big four games on the schedule, I believe this game would possess the highest upside if we are able to pull off the upset. Win this game, and you have a legit shot to the SEC championship game and even a College Football Playoff berth. It will be a tough ask for the Aggies, and I am not quite ready to predict the miracle yet, but I have a good feeling about this game.

Prediction: Aggies drop a heartbreaker, 31-28, missing a late 45+ yard field goal that would have tied the game.

2019 Schedule Breakdown (Part I)

“Great moments are born from great opportunities.” -Herb Brooks

Today’s post will mark the first in a 4-part series breaking down the 2019 schedule. Rated as one of the three toughest schedules in the country, the Aggies will have their work cut out for them this fall. Per ESPN FPI (Football Power Index), Texas A&M will play the four toughest teams, with 3 of those matchups taking place on the road (#1 Clemson, #3 Georgia, and #4 LSU). The Aggies are rated as the 11^th best team according to the FPI and yet are given just a 2.2% chance to win the conference due to the rigorous schedule. Jimbo knew what he signed up for when he agreed to his record-setting deal, so you can bet that the man in charge will not be feeling like an underdog to any team they face this season. So, get ready to enjoy another crazy football season Aggies, because the Maroon and White will likely be playing several primetime, marquee games this season and have a chance to really shake up the College Football Playoff race.

I have included last season’s statistics for each team. In addition, I have included their returning production to gauge how much of their talent, or lack thereof, they return. For a point of reference Texas A&M’s stats would read:

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 471.6 YPG (15^th in the nation) Total Defense 384.4 YPG (32^nd)

2018 Returning Production: Offense 62% returning (71^st in the nation) Defense 49% (108^th)

Texas State 8/29

2018 Season Record: 3-9 (9^th in SunBelt Conference)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 330.3 YPG (120^th), Total Defense 383.9 YPG (53^rd)

Returning Production: Offense 80% (18^th), Defense 85% (5^th)

This will mark the second straight year that Texas A&M’s first game has been moved up a couple of days to Thursday. Much like last year, this will give us an extra couple of days to prepare for the big showdown at Clemson in Week 2. If we are being honest, this should be another season-opening blowout for Jimbo and company (they beat Northwestern State last year 59-7 while racking up over 400 yards rushing). An intriguing story line to watch however, will be the new coach for Texas State, Jake Spavital, who will be making his head coaching debut. It will be his first return to Kyle Field since he was the QB coach during the 2013 season, and then was later promoted to Offensive Coordinator for the 2014-2015 seasons. He followed that up with a stop as California’s offensive coordinator and then ran West Virginia’s offense for the past two seasons. He is known for running a fast-paced, spread-style offense. Aggie fans will remember him for calling lots of bubble screens and plays that were more horizontal instead of vertical. The Aggies will treat this game as an opportunity to knock the rust off and get in their groove. Expect to see fairly basic schemes on both offense and defense as they will not be wanting to tip their hand for the Clemson game the following weekend. Most of the starters should be out of the game early in the second half as the backups and freshman get a chance to prove themselves.

Prediction: Aggies win 41-14

@ Clemson 9/7

2018 Season Record: 15-0 (National Champions)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 527.2 YPG (3^rd) Defense 285.9 YPG (5^th)

Returning Production: Offense 77% (26^th), Defense 52% (100^th)

If the 44-16 beatdown delivered to Alabama by Clemson in the National Championship Game wasn’t enough, the statistics from last season back up the fact that Clemson was hands-down the best team in college football. Some people are making the argument that they were one of the greatest teams of all-time as they were the first team to ever go 15-0. Add the fact that they had an average margin of victory of 32 points per game (highest in history) and you can see why people are making that statement. As a matter of fact, their 2-point win last season in College Station was their closest game all year. After losing to Alabama in the 2017 CFP semifinals, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney knew he needed to change the outlook of the offense. Enter early-enrollee, true freshman Trevor Lawrence into the picture. In just his second ever college football game last fall, he managed to throw a 64-yard touchdown pass on his very first play against the Aggies. But from that moment on, he was given 3 more drives that all ended in punts and was only able to manage 29 more passing yards on 4 completions over 8 attempts. Safe to say that A&M defensive coordinator Mike Elko was confusing the true freshman with his blitzes and schemes. Now obviously Trevor Lawrence grew immensely since that game and should be a Heisman front-runner to start 2019. Add in that fact that he returns 1,600 yard rusher Travis Etienne and his top 3 receivers from last year (although Amari Rodgers may miss the game due to ACL injury) and there is no reason to believe that their offense won’t be one of the most explosive in college football again. The addition of Trevor Lawrence gives the Clemson offense a true game-changer from the pocket as he can test the defense vertically with his elite arm talent. All the weapons on the offensive side of the ball make it almost impossible to game plan to stop them, it’s really more about limiting them as best you can. With the Aggie secondary being the weakest aspect of the team, Mike Elko will have his hands full. I expect him to try to disguise coverages and blitzes to throw off the offense’s timing. He does a great job of bringing pressure from multiple angles and has so many people on the line of scrimmage to start the play that you really can’t foresee where the pressure is coming from. He will need to use every trick in the book and hope to get some pressure with just the front 4 so that he can drop 7 into coverage. The goal here will be to hold them around 35 points or less in all honesty. Do that, and you at least give your offense a chance to stick around. If they are able to get home with some of the pressure, then maybe they can force some turnovers and take some extra possessions away from Lawrence and company.

On the offensive side of the ball, Jimbo and offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey will be helping the defense out by trying to churn out some long, time-consuming drives. Jimbo has notoriously been able to out-scheme Clemson’s Brent Venables, who is one of the top defensive coordinators in all of college football. Last year in College Station, he was able to roll up over 500 yards of total offense while having very little help from the running game. The all-conference defensive front from Clemson totally stifled any room the Aggie running backs might have had. The good news is that the Clemson defense will be replacing six members from the front seven on defense, including all four defensive lineman. Clemson has recruited well, so they will still replace these players with high end talent, but it is safe to assume that it won’t be with three first rounders up front like they had last season. It plays to the Aggies advantage that they get a crack at this Clemson defense trying to replace so many dynamic players early in the year. Hopefully, the Aggie rushing attack can get more traction that afternoon and allow the offense to be more balanced and consume even more clock. The best way to slow down that offense is to keep Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and those dynamic receivers on the sidelines for as much of the game as possible. Jimbo did a great job of throwing so many different wrinkles out against Clemson that led to some chunk plays. From having Gillaspia slip out of the backfield and down the sideline wide open to a play-action, throwback pass to Jace Sternberger, he called a masterful game in 2018. It helped that Kellen Mond made some incredible plays while throwing for 430 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers. It was tough sledding for the offense in the first half, but late in the game they were able to move up and down the field with relative ease. They scored three times in the final 20 minutes and put up over 200 yards more than the average amount allowed by that vaunted Clemson defense. Now with eight returning starters from that same offense and the Tigers having to replace seven defensive starters themselves, this has the making of an offensive explosion for both teams. Not only do the Aggies need to play “keep away” from the Clemson offense and churn out first downs on long, methodical drives; they cannot afford to turn the ball over and give the defending national champions any more opportunities. The task will be tall, as the Aggies opened as 21-point underdogs in this game, but there is always a chance. A lot of things need to go right, but you best believe Jimbo will have his team ready to hand the Clemson Tigers their first loss since December of 2017. The keys will be to win the turnover battle, win the time of possession battle, and find a way to get Trevor Lawrence off his game and maybe force a turnover and sack him a few times. It will be a tough job to escape Death Valley with a win, but what a message it would send to the rest of college football. I don’t feel like the Aggies are quite up to the task in this one though. Ideally, they are within 1-2 scores at the start of the 4^th quarter and then can generate some big plays at the end of the game like last year. This might be another year where Texas A&M’s best efforts, simply aren’t enough. And to be honest, this might be the least important of the big four games on the schedule since it is not a conference matchup.

Prediction: Aggies stick around, but can’t pull off the miracle, falling to Clemson 45-31.

Lamar 9/14

2018 Season Record: 7-5 (3^rd in Southland Conference, first round loss in FCS playoffs)

2018 Season Stats: Total Offense 431.4 YPG (30^th FCS) Total Defense 442.3 YPG (92^nd FCS)

Returning Production: N/A

I will be honest, this game should be the easiest on the schedule, or at least one of 3 that should be handled pretty easily by the Aggies. With that said, I won’t spend much time breaking this one down. Hailing from Beaumont, Texas, the Cardinals made the FCS (Football Championship Series) playoffs last year in what many deemed as their most successful season in over 50 years. However, this contest should be over by half time. With the new redshirt rules allowing freshman to play in 4 games and still retain their redshirt status, this will be a game that many of the younger guys on the roster get quite a bit of action. I will be looking to see who takes most of the snaps after Kellen Mond exits the game as the back-up quarterback battle should be pretty fierce between James Foster and early-enrollee Zach Calzada. The biggest thing about this game will be to make sure we stay healthy and regain momentum after the brutal game against Clemson.

Prediction: Aggies play lots of backups and win handily, 45-13.

Parts 2-4 will be coming out over the next several days so stay tuned!

2019 Season Preview

A Look Back

The 2018 football season was a very exciting way to kick off the Jimbo Fisher era in College Station. Going through the always tough gauntlet that is the SEC West, Jimbo surprised analysts (and maybe even some Aggie fans) by guiding the Maroon and White to a second-place finish in the division. That is A&M’s highest finish ever in the SEC West, something not even Johnny Manziel could accomplish.

In one year, he was able to turn the offense from a spread, hurry-up style team with mostly RPO’s into a ball control, smash-mouth offense that really helped to protect a weak secondary. The Aggies finished 3^rd in the nation in time of possession, which helped cut down on the amount of time the defense would be out on the field. By the time the season was done, the defense had played over a game fewer worth of snaps than in previous years. Being this fresh allowed the Aggies to have the third best run defense in the nation, allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground. These complimentary styles on both sides of the ball helped the defense jump from 87^th in the nation in points per game in 2018 up 40 spots to 47^th in the nation in points allowed (including the 72 points given up in the wild game against LSU).

Of course, the way the Aggies stole second place was in one of the most dramatic games ever played. By outlasting the LSU Tigers in 7 overtimes, not only did they set records for longest game and most points scored, they finally got the “monkey off their back” by beating LSU for the first time in 7 tries. As Ed Orgeron stood on the sidelines soaked due to a premature Gatorade shower, I think shockwaves were felt across the SEC. Not only were the Aggies buying into Jimbo’s culture and vision very quickly, but they were no longer fading down the stretch in November like so many past seasons. The Aggies were one disastrous stretch of football (the last 7 minutes of the Auburn game) away from running the table in the month of November and probably playing their way into a New Year’s Six bowl. Kellen Mond threw the costly interception against Auburn late that allowed them to claw back into the game and take a win from the Aggies; a game which A&M actually controlled for 53 minutes of game time. Things appeared to be getting even more shaky as the Aggies came out very slow in the next game, trailing an Ole Miss team that did not make it to a bowl, 21-14 at half. Kellen Mond had thrown an interception and fumbled a ball that was returned for a touchdown with the Aggies inside the 5 yard line. He helped regroup the offense not only in that game, but for the rest of the season as he accounted for a 12 to 1 TD-turnover ratio over the final 3.5 games. Of course, having Trayveon Williams rush for 829 yards and 8 TDs over the final 4 games also contributed to the strong finish.

A Look Ahead

I think the last four games are a sign of what’s to come for the Jimbo offense and what it can be once he has it fully implemented. The Aggies went out and put up 38, 41, 74, and 52 points in their final 4 games against 2 defenses that finished top 30 in points allowed (UAB #7 and LSU #26) and another one that ranked in the top 50 (NC State #46). With Kellen Mond returning under center, and 3 of the top 4 receivers returning, the question for the offense becomes, how effectively can they replace a record setting tight end and running back? Returning four offensive linemen with significant starting experience will help fill the void left by Eric McCoy, who went in the second round of the NFL draft to the New Orleans Saints. Facing a multitude of first-round draft picks in the front seven last year (3 of the top 5 NFL draft picks and 8 total first rounders) was a great challenge, but the returning lineman are definitely battle-tested.

On the other side of the ball, I think there is reason for optimism as well, but this group has much more to prove. As good as that run defense was, that’s how bad the pass defense was, ranking 98^th in the nation. The reason the overall defense still put up decent statistical numbers was solely due to the fact that they were not put in a position to give up lots of yards and points with how often the offense was actually on the field. Losing 5 defenders from the front seven is not really a recipe for success either. The one area the Ags do return lots of experience is in the secondary, which is where they were devoid of top end talent. With the influx of skill in the secondary from the incoming freshman and from JUCO CB transfer Elijah Blades, I think the secondary will go from very bad to average (which would have won the Aggies another 2 games in 2018). While we do have to replace 3 /4 of the defensive linemen from last season, I think the depth and talent here will match what we had last season. Linebacker is the biggest question mark for me entering the season and another area where we need players to step up. Buddy Johnson has shown the type of play that could plug the hole left by Otaro Alaka and Anthony Hines is a former five star coming back from injury last year. My concern for the linebacker corps would be in lacking the leadership that Alaka and Tyrel Dodson provided.

What This Season Means

Obviously, 2019 is a very important year for the Aggie Football program. There will be lots of opportunities to show what this team is made of as they take on one of the top three toughest schedules in all of college football. The biggest four games are obviously the road matchups versus defending national champion Clemson in week two and the back-to-back games in hostile environments against Georgia and LSU to end the year. Throw in the October 12^th slugfest with Alabama and there are four great chances to show everyone exactly where A&M is headed. Most analysts are predicting the Aggies to win 8 games as they will be underdogs (sometimes double-digit underdogs) in all 4 of these showdowns. Win one of those games, and it will prove to everyone that Jimbo and company absolutely have this thing pointed in the right direction.

Winning 8 games would hold the status quo as they also won 8 games in the regular season last year. And exactly like last year, they would have a shot at 9 wins with a bowl victory again, albeit with an easier schedule. Going 8-4 in the regular season and winning the bowl game would not derail what Jimbo is building in College Station; in fact, it would-be right-on schedule for the vision of winning championships. Take care of business in all the games you should win, finally beat Auburn at home, and don’t lose to either of the Mississippi schools, and there is the path to 8 wins. Accomplish that, and the train will keep on rolling. However, the opportunity is there to jumpstart this dream of being a championship contender year in and year out. If the Aggies can win the swing games (Auburn and South Carolina) that are both within the friendly confines of Kyle Field (where Jimbo went 6-1 last season with his only loss to eventual national champion Clemson), I like the chances of stealing one of the big four games. If you give Jimbo and defensive coordinator Mike Elko four tries to take down an elite-level team, I think they can win at least one of those. The talent gap on A&M’s roster versus the likes of Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and LSU is still noticeable, but it is closing fast as they reeled in the #3 rated class per ESPN. With another top 10 class likely coming in 2020, the talent is being upgraded in a hurry and the schedule gets much easier next season. Top 5 ranked SEC East counterpart Georgia will be replaced by bottom dweller Vanderbilt, and the out of conference clash against Clemson will be replaced with a much more manageable Colorado team that missed a bowl game in 2018. Starting in 2020, the Aggies will be in contention to win 10+ games every year and start competing for SEC championships and College Football Playoff berths. That can all be accelerated by winning 9 regular season games in 2019 with a shot for 10 wins in a bowl game. Do that, and momentum will be strong in College Station as the Aggies will return a majority of the starters on both sides of the ball (only six seniors and 1-2 possible early entries to the NFL draft). Combine that with the consecutive top 10 recruiting classes and the easier schedule and the Aggies should start the year ranked in the top 10 and have everything to play for. This is the reason the Aggies forked over the big bucks and stole Jimbo away from Florida State with a massive 10-year, $75 million dollar deal. Exciting times are ahead in Aggieland, and they could start this upcoming season.

Meet the Writer

My name is Ryan Whitlock and I have been following Aggie Football for almost a decade now and have been a lifelong fan of college football in general. In my time as an ardent fan of all things Aggie sports related, I have witnessed quite a few highs and lows. I was at the UCLA meltdown in 2017 as well as the 59-0 drubbing we received in Tuscaloosa in 2014. I was a student for the 2011 season where we just could not manage to hold onto a second half lead. However, I also have experienced many highs; from watching all of Johnny’s home games in person and witnessing him win the Heisman Trophy, to watching one of the most thrilling games ever last November as the Aggies finally took down LSU. It truly has been a roller coaster.

These moments are what make being a fan of sports so amazing. For every humiliating defeat, there is a moment like last season when Cullen Gillaspia became the first 12th man to score a touchdown and eventually get drafted. While there will be more instances of B.A.S. (Battered Aggie Syndrome) throughout the coming Aggie Football seasons, I truly believe the best years are ahead for the this program. I look forward to sharing all the joy (and possible tears) with you and hopefully providing a little clarity and context along the way.