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2022 Schedule Preview

The 2022 schedule is another challenging one (as is the case every year in the SEC West) but the Aggies have the talent and depth to be able to make a run at 10 wins. The schedule starts with two games that they will be heavy favorites in which should help ease in the new quarterback not to mention a completely revamped defensive line that is replacing all four starters.

Vs Miami

The competition quickly steps up though as the Miami Hurricanes with new head coach Mario Cristobal come to Kyle Field in week three. The offense will return budding star Tyler Van Dyke (25 TDs, 6 INTs) who took over for the injured Derique King last season in the fourth game. He caught fire and threw for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs in each of the last six games. Other than that, the Hurricanes will be relying heavily on the transfer portal to replace their top receivers and retool their offensive line while new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis (from playoff participant Michigan) will be installing his system as well. The Maroon & White defense will be anchored by the stout secondary and they will face their first real test against Tyler Van Dyke and the Hurricane passing attack. In what will likely be a top-15 matchup, it will be the first chance to see what this team is made of but being at home will certainly help.

Chance to Win: 65%

Vs Arkansas (in Arlington)

The ensuing week starts conference play as Jimbo & Company will head to Arlington to face a potent Arkansas team. I was very skeptical about the Sam Pittman hire a few offseasons back, but he has proved me and most analysts wrong. He has completely overhauled the culture in Fayetteville and last year was able to achieve a breakthrough season winning nine games. With KJ Jefferson back at quarterback it will ultimately depend on how effective the Hogs were in the transfer portal as they also lost a ton to graduation. They brought in several transfers but probably none bigger than Alabama linebacker Drew Sanders. He never truly lost his position at Alabama due to skill, he just got hurt and there was another five star (Dallas Turner) to take his place. On offense, the biggest question is who will step up to fill the void left by first-team All-SEC receiver Treylon Burks. I personally don’t think Oklahoma transfer and former five star Jadon Hasselwood is up to the monumental task, but I think it will be more of a replacement-by-committee approach. Nevertheless, this is going to be a physical slugfest just like it always is.

Chance to Win: 55%

@ Mississippi State

Week five sets up a bit of a revenge game for Texas A&M as they will be looking to erase the bad loss suffered at the hands of Mississippi State last season. This was one of the few games where I felt like departed defensive coordinator Mike Elko had a bad gameplan during his four year tenure. He was too passive while playing soft coverage and quarterback Will Rogers ate them up completing 46 passes for 408 yards and 3 TDs. Mike Leach has been a thorn in the side of all Aggies since his Texas Tech days, but every year, the talent gap has grown larger between these two teams. I think new defensive coordinator DJ Durkin will make a difference in this game and have a much better plan of attack against the Bulldogs. My biggest concern is that this does not turn into a trap game for Texas A&M as they could be looking ahead to Alabama the next week and Starkville is never an easy place to get a win.

Chance to Win: 65%

@ Alabama

The second weekend of October sets up what is already being billed as the game of the year in Tuscaloosa. Will Anderson made comments at SEC Media Days about how the Crimson Tide players will be ready to settle any talking on the field. Texas A&M opened as a two-touchdown underdog, and it will take another herculean effort by whomever the quarterback is to pull off this major upset. The rosters are more evenly matched than most people think, but this feels like a game Saban has circled and it could get out of hand.

Chance to Win: 25%

@ South Carolina

A much-needed bye week follows and if the Aggies can get to this point in the season with just one loss, the back half of the schedule sets up very well for them. By this time, the stellar true freshman class have been through a gauntlet and should be ready to contribute down the stretch. A road trip to a sneaky South Carolina team could be trickier than most people believe. Even though the Aggies put together their most complete game of the year last season against the Gamecocks they figure to be tougher with Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler. He will be taking the snaps in Columbia this season and will be looking to restart the hype machine that led to him being a Heisman frontrunner to start last season. South Carolina is hoping it all clicks for the former five star, but the talent gap is too large.

Chance to Win: 70%

Vs Ole Miss

The Running Rebels travel to College Station the next week and it will be a reunion of sorts for DJ Durkin as he was poached this offseason from Lane Kiffin’s staff. Lane Kiffin actually lost both coordinators and his long-time strength and conditioning coach this offseason. Practically the entire team that won a school-record 10 wins is being replaced as the most important piece gone is first round QB Matt Corral. Lane Kiffin dubbed himself the “Portal King” as he landed the #2 overall transfer class. The headliner of the group is TCU running back Zach Evans, who many predict could lead the SEC in rushing in 2022.

Chance to Win: 75%

Vs. Florida

First year head coach Billy Napier will bring his Florida Gators to College Station on November 5th. Florida has recruited fairly well, averaging an 11th-ranked class over the past 4 cycles. The coaching change has taken its toll as many of the top players have transferred out. Anthony Richardson returns to fully take the reins being QB1 as he will no longer be splitting time with Emory Jones. There are several holes on the roster that were addressed through the transfer portal, but the biggest concern is how fast Napier can get buy-in from the Dan Mullen-recruited players on the roster.

Chance to Win: 75%

@ Auburn

The Aggies will go to Jordan Hare stadium for their last road contest of the season. Auburn spent the early parts of the offseason in turmoil as the boosters unsuccessfully tried to get head coach Brian Harsin fired due to unscrupulous activity (cheating on his wife). The claims were never proven, and the Tigers were stuck with him. the program seemed doomed and had the odds stacked against them, but he has quietly rebounded and seems to have gotten buy-in from his players. Former Aggie quarterback Zach Calzada transferred there and after sitting out the spring due to injury, he appears to have the starting QB job in hand. He will have dynamic running back Tank Bigsby in the backfield to help, but not much else. Considering how inconsistent he was last season with better surrounding talent, it is unlikely he is able to improve much, if at all, on his performance. By this point in the season, it is very likely Auburn is fighting for bowl eligibility, but the home-field advantage at Jordan Hare is always tough.

Chance to Win: 75%

Vs LSU

After a game against UMass in which we will likely see lots of the younger players get more extensive playing time (including five-star QB Conner Weigman), the Aggies will wrap up the regular season with a home contest against LSU. The Tigers will be the third team breaking in a first-year head coach as Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to come down to the Bayou. Although it appears to be not an ideal culture fit, the man has won over 100 games and knows how to coach football. However, LSU has been depleted since their 2019 national title season and they have had to try to plug holes via the transfer portal. The quarterback situation will be interesting as it will come down to Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels, Garrett Nussmeier, and Myles Brennan. None of those guys are stellar options but as we learned last year, this game is fairly unpredictable, and LSU still has just enough talent to beat A&M if the Aggies don’t bring their A-game.

Chance to Win: 70%

As you can see and as Aggies learned last year, very few of the games against the SEC are easy. This conference recruits at an elite level and has NFL players littered throughout all rosters, even the teams that are fighting for bowl eligibility. The toughest stretch will be starting with the week three matchup against Miami followed by five straight weeks with no games at Kyle Field. Included in there is the toss up against Arkansas, the slugfest against probably preseason #1 Alabama, and two very sneaky road matchups against Mississippi State and South Carolina.

QUICK WHITS

This will be a new feature I put into articles randomly when I have some thoughts on a wide range of topics not directly related to Aggie Football. Just a few quick hitters on some important topics.

Conference realignment is raging on, and I am quite fearful for the future of the game I love. College football has always been about regionality, and pageantry and I feel like we might be losing that with these mega conferences that span three different time zones. It seems we are moving towards an expanded playoff structure and more of an NFL-style postseason. College football is great because of the regular season and how every Saturday has such importance.
Predicting the college football playoff participants seems easy to begin with as two teams appear well positioned to make it (Alabama and Ohio State), but after that, it gets very difficult to predict. I guess that is part of the allure of college football, it is truly unpredictable and the purest form of reality TV out there. Here are my official playoff predictions:

Alabama – defense looks to be much improved.

Ohio State – new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will make the difference this season.

Clemson – talent gap between rest of ACC makes up for lack of elite QB play for Tigers.

Utah – 13 returning starters and new coaches at Oregon & USC make the Utes Pac-12 favorites.

Yes, I am predicting Utah to make some noise in the PAC 12 before it goes belly up. The time is now for Kyle Whittingham and the Utes to make a run. Other sleeper teams I am keeping an eye on (not necessarily for the CFP) include Baylor, NC State, and USC.
The SEC East has a clear front runner (Georgia) just like Alabama in the West, but the real fight will be for second place. Tennessee and Kentucky figure to be the toughest competitions and both have a real shot to win 9 or 10 games, but you can’t count out South Carolina or Missouri either. My prediction is for Georgia to again win the SEC East and head to Atlanta with the steady Kentucky to take second place over a surging Tennessee team.

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2022 Season Preview

It has certainly been a tumultuous last 12 months for the Aggie football program. They entered 2021 with sky-high expectations and ultimately fell a bit flat due in large part to losing starting quarterback Haynes King (not to mention two starting wide receivers and two starting offensive lineman). The defense performed admirably (6th nationally in yards per play at only 4.66) and helped keep Texas A&M competitive deep into the second half of all four losses. However, outside of a spectacular performance against the Crimson Tide that included the biggest upset of the 2021 season, back-up quarterback Zach Calzada was largely pedestrian and lacked the consistency needed to win games in the SEC. The losses to Arkansas and Ole Miss were easier to digest as Arkansas had Super Seniors littered throughout their two-deep while Lane Kiffin and Matt Corral had the Rebels rolling and ended up with Ole Miss’s first ever 10 win season. On the flip side, losses to a middle-of-the-road Mississippi State team (at home no less) and a below average LSU team that ended up firing its head coach were frankly inexcusable.

To complete the roller coaster of the past several months, Jimbo Fisher and staff reeled in not only the #1 recruiting class in the 2022 team rankings… it was the highest-rated class of all time. Many accused Fisher and Texas A&M of simply paying for the class with the most notorious spat occurring just a few months ago as Alabama head coach Nick Saban was recorded saying that the Aggies “bought every player on their team.” Jimbo Fisher responded emphatically saying he got slapped as a child for lying and “maybe somebody should have slapped (Saban). Now, I am not naive enough to think that the new NIL (Name, Image, & Likeness) rules didn’t help contribute to the stellar recruiting class. But the insinuation that is the ONLY reason the Aggies were able to recruit so well is even more outlandish. The city of Houston has been a hotbed for A&M recruiting for years and the number of highly rated prospects that signed with the Aggies from the Houston area would have made for a top 15 class by themselves. Add in the fact that the staff started recruiting this class after a successful season that culminated with a Orange Bowl victory. The Aggies finished as the #4 team in the country all while the closest recruiting powers (LSU, OU, and Texas) were either replacing their head coaches or dealing with a first year head coach that lost seven games (including one to Kansas). It’s quickly apparent how several other factors aligned to help make this recruiting success possible.

What Constitutes a Successful Season?

Entering year five of the Jimbo Fisher Era and it will once again start with a top 10 ranking. The time is now for Jimbo to lead the Aggie football program to the next level. To me, it starts with 10 wins this year including a New Year’s Day bowl win. I am smack in the middle of predicting a 9-3 record and a 10-2 record. To keep this program moving in the right direction, 10 wins (even if it is including a bowl win) needs to happen this year. It will all come down to how fast the Aggies can start this year and break in a relatively new quarterback.

Who Starts at Quarterback?

Returning starter (for two games before injury at least) Haynes King, LSU transfer Max Johnson, and five star true freshman Conner Weigman will continue to battle it out to open fall practice to see who gets to lead one of the most talented rosters in college football. While Conner Weigman has the most raw talent of the group, I think the experience of the other two will be too much to overcome. Max Johnson threw for 27 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions on a team with far less talent than the one he is inheriting. However, I think three seasons worth of time in Jimbo’s offense combined with his running ability pays off for Haynes King and he narrowly beats out Max Johnson. The level of talent in the quarterback room is definitely a notch higher this season, but it needs to be at a B to B+ level for the Maroon and White to truly reach their potential.

Players to Know – Offense

The most dynamic player for Texas A&M this upcoming season could be running back Devon Achane. The junior-to-be led the entire SEC last season with 7.0 yards per carry. He rushed for over 900 yards as a backup with 9 TDs. He also had the game-changing kick-off return for a touchdown against Alabama. Now that he will be getting a bulk of the carries, look for his stats to really pop off the page. His biggest attribute is his world class speed. He has been clocked at a 10.14 in the 100 meter dash and has often been seen outrunning angles from opposing defenses. He possesses great vision and patience and when it is combined with his speed, it makes him a threat to score from any distance.

The next name to keep an eye on is incoming true freshman wide receiver Evan Stewart. The five star enrolled early and spent the spring learning the ropes of the offense. It has been a struggle for four seasons now for freshmen to crack into the starting rotation, but Stewart has the skills and work ethic to make it happen. The Aggies have never been able to consistently open up the downfield passing game, but Jimbo has repeatedly said this season with the talent on campus, he sees that changing this year. This largely depends how fast Evan Stewart can get acclimated to life in the SEC. He was rated as the number 11 overall player in the country in the vaunted 2022 recruiting class because of his blazing speed and explosiveness. If he and the new quarterback can open up the field with the vertical passing game, that just gives more room for Devon Achane and a young, but promising, tight end group to make some plays.

In four seasons of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure in College Station, he has had three all conference tight ends. He will utilize the tight end position again this year and he has a lot of talent to choose from, but very little game experience. I am looking for true freshman Jake Johnson to be the breakout player for this position group. He is the brother of transfer QB Max Johnson and the son of Super Bowl Champion Brad Johnson. He is 6 foot 5 inches and weighs north of 240 pounds. His athleticism can cause matchup nightmares for linebackers and his size will be tough for a safety to cover him. However, Jimbo won’t be able to unleash him if he is not a serviceable blocker at the end of the line of scrimmage.

Players to Know – Defense

The strength of this team early will be the defense. It is tough to pick out single players as the Aggies will be replacing all four starters along the defensive line. I think Shemar Turner breaks out in his sophomore campaign. The freshman All-SEC player was banged up the last half of the season, but figures to step up and hopefully replicate the lost production from third round NFL draftee DeMarvin Leal. Overall, new defensive coordinator DJ Durkin will try to bring truth to the old adage, “the sum of the parts are greater than the whole.” He has 10… yes, you read that right… TEN top 100 recruits just along the defensive line at his disposal. Hopefully the cream rises to the top and the depth proves stellar because they have a potential breakout player at the next level.
Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper showed flashes last season tallying 58 tackles in a back-up/third linebacker role. He has the speed to play from sideline-to-sideline and has enough size to be able to stuff ball carriers as well. He has a chance to be an all-SEC caliber linebacker in 2022.
The secondary has great talent and experience. Antonio Johnson is already receiving first round grades from many NFL draft experts and will slide back to a true safety role from his nickel position that he predominantly played last year. He will be joined by fourth year starter Demani Richardson. The corners will also be returning starters as junior Jaylon Jones and Tyreek Chappell (freshman all-SEC in 2021) will look to lock down opposing receivers. It will truly be a loaded defense for first year coordinator DJ Durkin, who has been known to employ a much more aggressive approach.

The talent is absolutely in place for the Aggies to make some serious noise in 2022. If the QB play pans out and injury-luck is on their side, the ceiling for this team is an SEC Championship appearance or a playoff berth. On the flip side, if the QB play is again inconsistent and the offense fails to become more explosive and threaten defenses down the field, this team could drop some games even if they are the more talented team and finish 8-4 again. In Jimbo Fisher’s fifth year at the helm, it is time to take the next step as a program and notch 10 wins.

Breakout Players

One of the great aspects of college football that make it different from professional sports is that there are no contracts that players are obligated to, no trades to be demanded, and no holdouts to occur. Each player has four to five years to achieve their goals and that is it. This leads to lots of roster turnover each year as graduating seniors or NFL Draft hopefuls depart the program and open the door for new players to step up and take their shot at making a name for themselves. This can be a talented youngster that might be in his first or second year on campus, or an upperclassmen that has worked for several years to get his chance and is keen on making the most of it. There are several players that fit the bill here for the 2020 Aggie Football team.

Demond Demas

This list can almost start and end with this five star true freshman wide receiver. He is already the most athletic player on the team as he has clocked a 4.37 forty time (further evidence here). With his game-breaking speed, Jimbo Fisher will be looking to get him the ball in lots of unique ways. The only downside to Demond is the fact that he had to sit out his senior season last year due to a UIL ruling so he hasn’t played in a game in almost 22 months. Hopefully Jimbo is able to simplify the offense enough to get this playmaker the ball in space.

Jaylon Jones

Another five star true freshman that will likely get very early playing time (as in possibly starting game one) is cornerback Jaylon Jones. He comes in with all the measurables (6’2”, 205 pounds) and elite speed to be able to hold his own against the SEC’s best wide receivers. It also helps that he will be coming into a position group that sorely needs some talent upgrade as too often the past two seasons, our defensive backs have not been athletic enough to match up with the top tier wide receivers in this conference.

Jalen Preston

A redshirt sophomore this year, Jalen Preston is entering his third year on campus and it is time for him to live up to his once very high potential. Rated as a top 10 player in the state of Texas in the class of 2018, I first watched Jalen while he was in the playoffs for Manvel High School. He was always the best player on the field and is absolutely dynamic when talking about getting yards after the catch (something this offense was really missing last season). With the wide receiver position wide open now that two seniors won’t be playing this season (Ausbon and Buckley), I think this is the year that Preston finally breaks out and makes a name for himself.

Chase Lane

With so many open spots to fill in the wide receiver rotation now that six of the top seven pass catchers from last season have moved on, there will be several new names catching passes. Count Chase Lane as one of those new receivers as Jimbo has had rave reviews for him all during fall camp. He is also a member of the 2018 recruiting class so he has as much experience in Jimbo Fisher’s offense as anyone. A member of all the relay teams for his high school, look for him to use his speed to make a difference this upcoming season.

Devon Achane

This pick might be a year early as the true freshman running back is undersized (5’9”, 185 pounds) but as dynamic as anyone on the roster. He has been clocked at a 10.5 in the 100 meter and will also be running on the Aggie track team. He is the only player as dynamic and explosive as Demond Demas, but with his slight stature and two guys ahead of him on the depth chart (Isaiah Spiller and Ainias Smith), I am not sure how much playing time he will get. However, he should make an impact on special teams and I still think Jimbo Fisher will find unique ways to get the ball in his hands a few times every game.

Demarvin Leal/Ainias Smith

It’s tough to call these two as “breakout” players given that they made a sizable impact during their true freshman seasons. However, entering their second year, I expect both to take the next step and actually be the best player on each side of the ball. Demarvin Leal started out hurt last season but came on strong to end the year. I now expect the defensive lineman to be moved inside and outside while causing absolute havoc wherever he is lined up. He will be disrupting offensive gameplans all season and will be our best defensive player. As for Ainias Smith, we saw flashes of his explosiveness at wide receiver last year. He moved to running back for the bowl game and Jimbo Fisher decided to keep him there this offseason to backup Spiller. Even though he will not technically be the starter, his unique skill set will cause headaches for opposing defensive coordinators as he can be used in the backfield or motioned out to wide receiver to exploit mismatches.

2020 Schedule Preview

The original 2020 schedule was circled on the calendar by many Aggies shortly after Jimbo Fisher was hired. He would have two full recruiting classes and be entering year three in his tenure all while getting to replace Clemson and Georgia on the schedule with Colorado and Vanderbilt. But alas, the pandemic wrecked that beautiful schedule that would have likely seen the Aggies threaten for 10 wins for the first time in eight seasons and really get Jimbo Fisher’s rebuild off the ground. Instead of an easy non conference schedule including Abilene Christian, North Texas, and Fresno State (would have been favored by 21+ points in all three games), we get to play #6 Florida and a rising Tennessee program (ranked #17) in a 10 game, all-SEC schedule. It will be a gauntlet that no other conference will have to endure in 2020, but it is what the Aggies signed up for by joining the SEC and you can bet that Jimbo Fisher and Company will not back down from anyone on this schedule this year.

As a reminder, I will list out each opponent’s average yards per game gained offensively and allowed defensively and where those totals ranked nationally last year. I will also put the returning production from last year’s team(which is calculated here).

Vandy 9/26

2019 stats: Offense= 298.8 ypg (123rd)

Defense= 437.0 ypg allowed (101st)

Returning Production: Offense 35% (122nd) Defense 93% (4th)

Not much to say on this one as Vanderbilt was bad last year and lost most of the talent that was on the team. Head coach Derek Mason is a defensive-minded guy and while they return most of that defense, it was not very good. Aggies should roll to an easy victory in week one.

Score Prediction: Aggies win 38-10

% chance to win: 99%

@ #2 Alabama 10/3

2019 stats: Offense = 510.9 ypg (6th)

Defense= 324.6 ypg allowed (21st)

Returning Production: Offense 55% (85th) Defense 60% (75th)

Replacing the best quarterback in school history will be priority number one for Nick Saban as Tua Tagovailoa and two wide receivers were all taken in the first round of the NFL draft. But at Alabama, they do not rebuild, they just reload and will have the best offensive line in the country this season. Texas A&M will have their hands full in this one as it will be tough for Kellen Mond and company to move the ball. A lot of breaks will have to go the Aggies way to come out victorious in Tuscaloosa.

Score Prediction: Alabama wins 31-17

% chance to win: 30%

#6 Florida 10/10

2019 stats: Offense= 430.8 ypg (45th)

Defense=306.7 ypg allowed (10th)

Returning Production: Offense 63% (67th) Defense 67% (55th)

This is the first swing game for the Aggies in 2020 as this would go a long way to a successful season if the Aggies can pull this one out at home. Both teams are in year three of their coaches tenure as Dan Mullen has gotten 10+ wins in each of his first two seasons (albeit against an easier schedule).Florida’s quarterback Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond are thought to be the two top returning quarterbacks in the SEC and will get a chance to battle it out on the field as Florida’s run game is it’s weakest unit. However, they have a dominating defensive front that will also make it tough on the Aggies to run the ball.

Score Prediction: Florida wins 24-21 in a battle that comes down to the fourth quarter

% chance to win: 45% (this is essentially a toss up game)

@ Mississippi State 10/17

2019 stats: Offense= 400.2 ypg (70th)

Defense= 399.3 allowed (72nd)

Returning Production: Offense 54% (87th) Defense 48% (113th)

While I love the hire of Mike Leach as the head football coach, I think it will take some time to install his Air-Raid offense that throws the ball 60+ times a game. Teams that are breaking in a completely new coaching staff and installing a radically different offense will be behind the curve with the limited offseason work due to Covid concerns. Aggies have historically struggled in Starkville and against Mike Leach (when he was at Texas Tech), but should still have enough of a talent advantage to pull out of a win

Score Prediction: Aggies win 42-28

% chance to win: 75%

Arkansas 10/31

2019 stats: Offense= 340.2 ypg (111th)

Defense = 451.2 ypg allowed (110th)

Returning Production: Offense 63% (68th) Defense 68% (52nd)

This is a team that has gone 2-10 each of the last two years and haven’t won an SEC game since 2017. They will also be breaking in a new coaching staff and have played the Aggies much closer than should be expected over the last several years. However, this game moves from AT&T stadium in Arlington back to Kyle Field for this season and the Aggies should win more comfortably at home to stretch the winning streak to nine consecutive years.

Score Prediction: Aggies win 28-17

% chance to win: 90%

@South Carolina 11/7

2019 stats: Offense= 371.9 ypg (96th)

Defense= 393.3 ypg allowed (66th)

Returning Production: Offense 72% (43rd) Defense 72% (43rd)

Head Coach Will Muschamp is a great defensive mind in the game, but his seat is warm and will only get warmer this season. They have a good young quarterback in Ryan Hilinski, but the talent gap should be too wide here as the Aggies continue their winning streak.

Score Prediction: Aggies win 34-17

% chance to win: 75%

@ #17 Tennessee 11/14

2019 stats: Offense 365.7 ypg (100th)

Defense= 334.5 ypg allowed (23rd)

Returning Production: Offense 68% (59th) Defense 69% (50th)

The Volunteers are the Preseason media darling this year as they won seven of their last eight ball games. However, just two of those games were against teams with winning records (Kentucky and Indiana). The numbers show they have a good defense but that is also a bit misleading as they played several mediocre offenses. Neyland Stadium is a tough environment to go into and win but not having full fan attendance will help.

Score Prediction: Aggies win a defensive struggle 13-7

% chance to win: 60%

Ole Miss 11/21

2019 stats: Offense= 445.3 ypg (26th)

Defense= 417.3 ypg allowed (86th)

Returning Production: Offense 78% (23rd) Defense 64% (61st)

This will be the third team the Aggies face this season with a completely new coaching staff. Head Coach Lane Kiffin is a brilliant offensive mind and will have some real talent to work with in running quarterback John Rhys Plumlee and running back Jerrion Ealy both returning for their sophomore seasons. Unfortunately, as dynamic as the Rebels will be on offense, they will be below average on defense.

Score Prediction: Aggies win 45-31

% chance to win: 70%

#5 LSU 11/28

2019 Stats: Offense= 568.9 ypg (1st)

Defense= 344.3 ypg allowed (31st)

Returning Production: Offense 30% (128th of 130) Defense 54% (92nd)

As I said to end the season, LSU had the most dominant season of any college football team possibly ever in 2019. But 2020 will be a completely new team with new offensive and defensive coordinators and 17 starters gone off that national championship team. Breaking in a new quarterback to replace the great Joe Burrow will be difficult, but it will be even more challenging without the help of Biletnikoff award winner (best wide receiver) Jamar Chase, who opted out a few weeks ago. The LSU faithful will say they have recruited great classes, but this is the most talent a defending national champion has ever had to replace and I think it will cause LSU to take a step back into what they normally are, a dangerous team that will end up with three losses.

Score Prediction: LSU wins 34-28

% chance to win: 45% (essentially a toss up, the second swing game)

@ #11 Auburn

2019 stats: Offense 406.8 ypg (64th)

Defense= 337.0 ypg allowed (27th)

Returning Production: Offense 61% (77th) Defense 60% (78th)

The Auburn Tigers will be having to replace three of the starting four in their secondary and on their defensive line. They will also be breaking in four new offensive lineman and a new running back. They will lean on returning quarterback Bo Nix who showed flashes of brilliance at times during his freshman season, but was inconsistent. The Aggies have lost three in a row to the Tigers and it will take their “A” game to prevent it from being four in a row.

Score Prediction: Aggies wins a tight one 31-24

% chance to win: 55% (another toss up game, and the final swing game)

This season essentially rides on four games. The two game stretch to start the year with Alabama in week two and Florida in week three and then the ending stretch of LSU at home and Auburn on the road. Rather unfortunate that those two stretches are back to back, but find a way to win two out of four and the Aggies will most likely finish 8-2 which would be amazing. However, I think the most realistic outlook has the Aggies going 7-3 with one big time win in there but still a season away from truly breaking through.

2020 Defensive Overview

I have fairly high expectations for the 2020 Aggie defense. Defensive coordinator Mike Elko is one of the top defensive minds in the game and will be entering his third season in Aggieland. He has helped immediately turn around a defense that from 2013-2017 gave up an average of 431.4 yards per game and ranked 87th in the nation. Elko engineered quite the overhaul as the Aggies have had one of the top run defenses the past two seasons and are giving up just 344.5 yards per game and have had the 32nd and 29th ranked defenses the past two seasons. All of this despite playing top offenses such as Alabama, Clemson, and LSU each year. Now that Elko has started to get some of his own elite recruits into his system, I expect even better production.

Areas of Concern:

Lack of Turnovers

The Aggies ranked 114th in the nation last year in creating turnovers with only 14 takeaways (4 of which came in the first game against Texas State). One of the biggest momentum changers in the game and keys to being victorious is winning the turnover battle and the Texas A&M defense has not done a good enough job of that over the past two seasons. These quick changes of possession can frustrate an opposing quarterback and offense while also giving your own offense a shorter field to work with, making it easier to score touchdowns. Mike Elko has one of his secondary spots locked down by sophomore Demani Richardson, who was the first player to intercept Tua Tagovailoa last season. He will have much more talent to play with in the secondary this season with guys like five star corner Jaylon Jones, JUCO transfer Brian George, five star corner Erick Young, and dependable senior Myles Jones having a much improved offseason. The defensive backs he will be putting on the field should be faster and able to stick with receivers much better and have the instincts to come away with interceptions at a higher rate. Of course, quarterbacks are more prone to mistakes when they are under duress which leads into the next area of concern…

Pass Rush

Texas A&M only registered 25 sacks all of last season which ranked 70th in the nation and 9th in the SEC. Mike Elko likes to dial up pressure from all different levels of the defense, sometimes by blitzing linebackers while at other times walking down a safety or bringing a cornerback off the edge. Last year, with a suspect secondary, Elko was forced to keep more players in coverage on passing downs and had to rely on just the front four to create some havoc around the quarterback and they were all too often unable to do just that. It is imperative that a defense is able to generate a pass rush with just the defensive line so that it can allow Elko to disguise coverages on the back end and confuse the opposing quarterback. This season, the Aggie defense needs to be able to make the offense uncomfortable without having to always blitz extra players.

Reasons to be Encouraged:

Returning Production

As mentioned earlier, the 2019 Texas A&M defense was good enough for 29th last season and returned 74% of the production from that unit. While they will have to replace their best cover corner from last year in Elijah Blades (who opted out this season most likely due to injury), they return several players with significant starting experience. Mike Elko and Jimbo Fisher have a luxury when you consider that they return ¾ of the defensive front, both starting linebackers, and four defensive backs with lots of playing time. Mix in some of those top ranked recruits from the last two classes and this defense will be the strength of the team.

Front Seven (or rather Six)

While the Aggies did lose their best player up front from last season in defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (3rd round NFL draft pick of Baltimore Ravens), I don’t foresee a step back at all for this group. The best unit on this entire team from an overall talent and depth standpoint is the defensive line. Demarvin Leal burst onto the scene as a true freshman last season and really turned it on in the second half of the year once he was fully healthy. With his unique skill set and size (6’4”, 290 pounds) he will be moved all around up front and cause havoc wherever he is. Throw in future NFL draft picks at defensive tackle in Bobby Brown (pre-season 2nd team all-conference pick) and Jayden Peevy and this will once again be a very tough team to run the ball on. Texas A&M also returns both starting linebackers from last season as redshirt junior Anthony Hines and senior Buddy Johnson are back. Both stepped into starting roles for the first time last season and combined for 150 tackles and 20 tackles for loss. Now that each has a year of starting experience under their belt, it’s only reasonable to expect improvement this upcoming season.

Post Signing Day Musings

With the LSU Tigers being crowned national champions over a month ago, you would think that the college football world would be at a standstill right now. But in an industry that brings in millions of dollars annually, the grind never truly stops. Since the national championship game on January 13 in New Orleans, there has been the final push for the final recruiting rankings, numerous coaching changes, and several star players declaring for the NFL draft. Instead of trying to encapsulate a busy start to the 2020 year in a formatted article, I decided to just publish a string of semi-coherent thoughts about what might be in store for the Aggies and college football in general in 2020.

LSU capped off their 15-0 perfect season just about 90 minutes from their campus in spectacular fashion. Their incredible run has to be mentioned in the conversation as one of the greatest teams/season ever. While the defense was not dominant, the offense was incredible and could not be stopped by anyone. And the defense played its best from mid-November on as they only allowed 18 points per game over their last five contests (two of which were against top five offenses in Clemson and Oklahoma). With the departure of Heisman winning quarterback Joe Burrow, offensive mastermind Joe Brady (Carolina Panthers), longtime defensive coordinator Dave Aranda (Baylor head coach), and 16 starters either graduating or declaring early for the NFL draft, Coach Ed Orgeron will have his hands full trying to replicate the success of 2019. Did he catch lightning in a bottle with a perfect blend of Joe Burrow and Joe Brady? Or will he take a step back now that all that is left from this dream team he assembled is his elite recruiting skills and incoherent Cajun babbling?

There have been 23 coaching changes from the middle of the 2019 season until now. With how much money is invested in the sport and the amount of revenue a college can see from a successful football program, athletic departments are quicker to pull the trigger on a failed coaching experiment (like Chad Morris at Arkansas). For the 2020 season, there will be four new head coaches in the SEC. The most surprising to me is the fact that Arkansas gave Sam Pittman the job with no experience beyond being simply a position coach. He jumped up at least two rungs on the career ladder as he went from offensive line coach at Georgia to head coach at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are hoping that this move will bring them success like it has with Clemson (Dabo Sweeney) and LSU (Ed Orgeron) who were promoted from position coaches straight to head coaches. I think it will be rough sledding in Fayetteville for Hog fans for the foreseeable future. I think my favorite hire (besides Mike Norvell to Florida State from Memphis) was Mississippi State finally giving Mike Leach a chance at a big time college with great resources. It will be interesting to see how his Air Raid offense translates to the SEC and if he can recruit well enough to turn things around in Starkville. I don’t think he can take the program to quite the heights that Dan Mullen had it, but this was a great response to the splash hire that arch-rival Ole Miss made by nabbing Lane Kiffin from Florida Atlantic. Will the folks in Starkville be content with 7-5 or 8-4 seasons (occasionally making a run at 9-3) if it means beating Ole Miss more often than not?

Speaking of coaching changes, Jimbo Fisher had quite the overhaul on his staff since the Texas Bowl victory about six weeks ago. The departed coaches include linebackers coach Bradley Dale Peveto, running back coach Jay Graham (same position with his alma mater, Tennessee), defensive backs coach Mo Linguist (same position with the Dallas Cowboys), and tight end coach Joe Jon Finley (same position at Ole Miss). Throw in the fact that the head coach for the Aggies lost his director of recruiting (Austin Thomas took a general manager job with Baylor’s athletic program) and that is quite a bit of coaching turnover. Jimbo also had to hold off Penn State courting defensive line coach Elijah Robinson to come back to his alma mater. The key difference between Fisher and previous regimes in Aggieland however, is the fact that he views these coaching changes as unique opportunities to upgrade his staff. He quickly filled his linebacker coaching vacancy with Tyler Santucci, the linebackers coach from Wake Forest. He is recognized as a young up-and-comer (similar to Mo Linguist and Elijah Robinson) and was a longtime assistant for current defensive coordinator Mike Elko. Jimbo then backfilled the defensive backs coaching vacancy with T.J. Rushing from Florida State (came over with Mike Norvell from Memphis). The two best hires this offseason though both come from a Georgia football program that has put together four straight top three recruiting classes and have been to four straight SEC championships. Jimbo reunited with James Coley, who coached under him on his national championship team at Florida State. Coley served as the offensive coordinator for Georgia this past season but will be the tight ends coach here in Aggieland. Most importantly though, he is especially known for his elite recruiting skills. Throw in the fact that Jimbo poached the director of recruiting (Marshall Malchow) from Georgia and it was a pretty decent offseason for the Aggies.

The Maroon and White put an exclamation point on their sixth ranked recruiting class on National Signing Day by winning a head-to-head recruiting battle against Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide. The Aggies got the signature of borderline five star defensive tackle McKinnley Jackson out of Mississippi. By finishing the cycle with the sixth ranked class to join up with the third ranked class from 2019, the talent level is being upgraded in a big way. This year’s class might be better as the number of top-100 national prospects is actually greater in 2020 than 2019. The Aggies are right there in the thick of things in terms of recruiting talent that is on the level of Clemson, Alabama, Georiga, and Ohio State (you know, the playoff contenders year in and year out). And Jimbo is doing all of this off the back of a 9-4 season and an 8-5 season against a historically difficult schedule. Imagine what he can do once he starts winning 10+ games most years.
The way-too-early 2020 rankings have Texas A&M once again ranked in the top 15 (still behind Texas in most rankings, imagine that). A large part of this has to do with the Aggies returning somewhere around 18 starters next year and having a much easier schedule. Each year, Bill Connelly of ESPN does a great write-up of returning production and predictive analysis based a number of different factors (returning offensive yardage percentage, returning defensive metrics, etc.). With a senior quarterback and so many returning starters, the Aggies rank 16^th in terms of returning production, higher than any team on our schedule next season. Our two toughest game next year are the last two games, but, LSU checks in at 127^th (out of 130) and Alabama is 88^th. Now these two programs have been recruiting at an elite level for several years and Alabama is used to just reloading with top tier talent every year, but they will both be replacing the best quarterbacks in their school’s history. The other difficult game on our schedule will be Auburn in week seven. They have to replace all five offensive lineman and several starters on their stalwart defense. With all the talent we have returning, this is the year Aggie football needs to take that next step. It is time for Jimbo Fisher to begin turning these lofty recruiting rankings into wins on the gridiron. In my way-too-early record prediction for 2020, I would lean more towards 9-3 for this team due to inconsistent QB and offensive line play. Shore those two areas up (which some fresh faces that bring speed to the offense might help) and the Aggies might be able to win 10 regular season games for the first time since 2012, when Johnny Manziel was the quarterback.

Georgia Breakdown

The Aggies put up a good fight Saturday afternoon “Between the Hedges,” especially in the second half. After being held to just 73 yards of total offense in the first half, the visiting team looked much different after half time and managed 201 yards and actually outscored the Bulldogs 10-3. However, it was too little, too late as the Aggies lost 19-13 to the #4 ranked team in the nation.

The Bad

The first half from the offense was bad, no two ways around it. They had six punts and had four drives that went for zero or negative yards. Luckily, the defense showed up and kept Texas A&M in the game long enough for the offense to come alive, but if we would have had any semblance of a coherent offense in the first 30 minutes, then it would have gone a long way in the final outcome.

Jimbo Fisher and offensive line coach Josh Henson have done a good job the past five to six games of improving the running game since early in the season. This was all undone on Saturday as the #3 ranked run defense in the nation (75.5 YPG) held the Aggies to -1 yards rushing. This made the offense way too one dimensional and allowed the Georgia defense to just focus on the pass. Isaiah Spiller has been so good of late but was completely shut down. The Georgia defensive line completely whipped our offensive line all game. This is the position group that worries me the most moving into 2020. We will need a grad transfer and some of the younger players to improve dramatically next year. Four of the five current starters return next season but to be frank, they are not talented enough to compete against top end talent in the SEC.

When going on the road to try and defeat a serious playoff contender and the SEC East champ for the past three seasons, you must have a lot of things go your way. What you can’t do, is have the referees make 3-4 egregious calls in critical times that go against you. I am normally not one to use the referees as an excuse because I do believe a team should be able to overcome a bad call, but the refs in this one were flat out bad. There were four big calls that were missed in my opinion, with all but one of them being pretty blatant.

The missed facemask/offensive pass interference where the receiver for Georgia literally pulled Debione Renfro’s facemask down and held it that way for the first five yards of the route. The result was a wide-open receiver in the endzone that accounted for Georgia’s only touchdown of the day. This happened literally in front of the referee.
The first drive coming out of half Kellen Mond hits Jalen Wydermyer close to the sideline and he is swarmed by 3-4 Bulldog defenders. It was obvious he wasn’t getting any more yards but instead of blowing it dead, the referees let this play continue for several additional seconds that allowed Georgia to rip the ball out. This was inside the Aggies own 25 and resulted in a field goal for Georgia.
On the next drive, the Aggies finally started to move the ball. Kellen Mond scrambled for 9 yards to set up a 3^rd and one at the Georgia 26. He then did a quarterback sneak that appeared to give him the first down, but the referees did not agree and incorrectly spotted him short. A bad play call to run right up the middle on 4^th and inches resulted in a negative play and turnover on downs.
The last one is two-fold. There was a missed pass interference on Jhamon Ausbon when the Aggies were at the 12-yard line and on their way to make it a one score game. Ausbon ran an in-and-out route and beat his defender to where the only way to stop him was to hold his jersey and not allow him to catch the ball. The Aggies were then penalized two plays later (which seemed to happen way too often) and we stalled and had to settle for a field goal. Then, on the final offensive drive of the game, while facing a third and 11, Kellen Mond threw an out route to Jalen Wydermyer. He was breaking open when the defender blatantly held him and did not allow him to make a clean cut. The pass was incomplete and the Aggies punted and never got the ball back.

An elite team is able to overcome 1-2 of these plays in a game and the Aggies did themselves no favors with penalty mistakes. But Georgia was the more talented team and the Aggies could not afford to overcome all of those instances to spring the upset. If just 1-2 of those plays are called correctly, this one might have had a different outcome.

The Good

I was in attendance at the game and was very impressed with the atmosphere and gameday festivities in Athens. The campus had a nice, southern charm and the crowd was very loud. At the end of the third quarter, the stadium has a light show in which the only color displayed is Georgia red and the song “Power” by Kanye West was blaring over the sound system. It was a very cool thing to see in person.

Kellen Mond was fantastic in the second half. In just the second half, he went 16-26 for 193 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers. With no run game to keep the Georgia defense honest, this was a pretty amazing effort he put forth. On the lone Aggie touchdown drive, he converted three different third and longs and showed great poise will displaying pinpoint accuracy as well. After the Georgia game, he now joins Johnny Manziel as the only Aggie quarterbacks to account for 7,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in their career. He will pass Johnny in a lot of records next season. I am a fan of the guy as he has displayed great toughness and done everything Jimbo Fisher has asked of him. But at the end of the day, him throwing the ball 42 times in a game like he did Saturday afternoon is not the path to success for our team.

They Aggie defense deserves all the credit they earn after their past three games. They stuffed the Georgia run game and only gave up 2.7 yards per rush for a grand total of 97 yards on the ground. This was less than half (208 YPG) of their season average. Having 8 tackles behind the line of scrimmage including two sacks certainly helped. They fought all day and held Georgia to only 260 total yards and just 5 of 15 on third down conversions. They were the real reason we were even competitive in that game.

What’s Next

Strangely enough, the schedule gets tougher next week as the Aggies will go to an even more hostile environment to take on the #1 ranked team in Baton Rouge. Coach Ed Orgeron and Heisman front-runner Joe Burrow have already made comments about how much they are looking forward to the revenge game. It will be a raucous crowd in Baton Rouge on Saturday night, but that is life in the SEC. I would much rather be playing in nationally relevant games like this in the best stadiums across the country rather than stuck in the Big 12 playing in half-sized stadiums around Texas and the Midwest.