2020 Schedule Preview

The original 2020 schedule was circled on the calendar by many Aggies shortly after Jimbo Fisher was hired.  He would have two full recruiting classes and be entering year three in his tenure all while getting to replace Clemson and Georgia on the schedule with Colorado and Vanderbilt.  But alas, the pandemic wrecked that beautiful schedule that would have likely seen the Aggies threaten for 10 wins for the first time in eight seasons and really get Jimbo Fisher’s rebuild off the ground.  Instead of an easy non conference schedule including Abilene Christian, North Texas, and Fresno State (would have been favored by 21+ points in all three games), we get to play #6 Florida and a rising Tennessee program (ranked #17) in a 10 game, all-SEC schedule.  It will be a gauntlet that no other conference will have to endure in 2020, but it is what the Aggies signed up for by joining the SEC and you can bet that Jimbo Fisher and Company will not back down from anyone on this schedule this year.  

As a reminder, I will list out each opponent’s average yards per game gained offensively and allowed defensively and where those totals ranked nationally last year.  I will also put the returning production from last year’s team(which is calculated here).

 Vandy 9/26

2019 stats: Offense= 298.8 ypg (123rd)

Defense= 437.0 ypg allowed (101st)

Returning Production: Offense 35% (122nd) Defense 93% (4th)

Not much to say on this one as Vanderbilt was bad last year and lost most of the talent that was on the team.  Head coach Derek Mason is a defensive-minded guy and while they return most of that defense, it was not very good.  Aggies should roll to an easy victory in week one.  

Score Prediction: Aggies win 38-10

% chance to win: 99%

@ #2 Alabama 10/3

2019 stats: Offense = 510.9 ypg (6th)

Defense= 324.6 ypg allowed (21st)

Returning Production: Offense 55% (85th) Defense 60% (75th) 

Replacing the best quarterback in school history will be priority number one for Nick Saban as Tua Tagovailoa and two wide receivers were all taken in the first round of the NFL draft.  But at Alabama, they do not rebuild, they just reload and will have the best offensive line in the country this season.  Texas A&M will have their hands full in this one as it will be tough for Kellen Mond and company to move the ball.  A lot of breaks will have to go the Aggies way to come out victorious in Tuscaloosa.  

Score Prediction: Alabama wins 31-17

% chance to win: 30%

#6 Florida 10/10

2019 stats: Offense= 430.8 ypg (45th)

Defense=306.7 ypg allowed (10th)

Returning Production: Offense 63% (67th) Defense 67% (55th) 

This is the first swing game for the Aggies in 2020 as this would go a long way to a successful season if the Aggies can pull this one out at home.  Both teams are in year three of their coaches tenure as Dan Mullen has gotten 10+ wins in each of his first two seasons (albeit against an easier schedule).Florida’s quarterback Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond are thought to be the two top returning quarterbacks in the SEC and will get a chance to battle it out on the field as  Florida’s run game is it’s weakest unit. However, they have a dominating defensive front that will also make it tough on the Aggies to run the ball. 

Score Prediction: Florida wins 24-21 in a battle that comes down to the fourth quarter

% chance to win: 45% (this is essentially a toss up game)

@ Mississippi State 10/17

2019 stats: Offense= 400.2 ypg (70th)

Defense= 399.3 allowed (72nd)

Returning Production: Offense 54% (87th) Defense 48% (113th)

While I love the hire of Mike Leach as the head football coach, I think it will take some time to install his Air-Raid offense that throws the ball 60+ times a game.  Teams that are breaking in a completely new coaching staff and installing a radically different offense will be behind the curve with the limited offseason work due to Covid concerns. Aggies have historically struggled in Starkville and against Mike Leach (when he was at Texas Tech), but should still have enough of a talent advantage to pull out of a win 

Score Prediction: Aggies win 42-28

% chance to win: 75%

Arkansas 10/31

2019 stats: Offense= 340.2 ypg (111th)

Defense = 451.2 ypg allowed (110th)

Returning Production: Offense 63% (68th) Defense 68% (52nd)

This is a team that has gone 2-10 each of the last two years and haven’t won an SEC game since 2017.  They will also be breaking in a new coaching staff and have played the Aggies much closer than should be expected over the last several years.  However, this game moves from AT&T stadium in Arlington back to Kyle Field for this season and the Aggies should win more comfortably at home to stretch the winning streak to nine consecutive years. 

Score Prediction: Aggies win 28-17

% chance to win: 90%

@South Carolina 11/7

2019 stats: Offense= 371.9 ypg (96th)

Defense= 393.3 ypg allowed (66th)

Returning Production: Offense 72% (43rd) Defense 72% (43rd)

Head Coach Will Muschamp is a great defensive mind in the game, but his seat is warm and will only get warmer this season.  They have a good young quarterback in Ryan Hilinski, but the talent gap should be too wide here as the Aggies continue their winning streak. 

Score Prediction: Aggies win 34-17

% chance to win: 75%

@ #17 Tennessee 11/14

2019 stats: Offense 365.7 ypg (100th) 

Defense= 334.5 ypg allowed (23rd) 

Returning Production: Offense 68% (59th) Defense 69% (50th)

The Volunteers are the Preseason media darling this year as they won seven of their last eight ball games.  However, just two of those games were against teams with winning records (Kentucky and Indiana).  The numbers show they have a good defense but that is also a bit misleading as they played several mediocre offenses.  Neyland Stadium is a tough environment to go into and win but not having full fan attendance will help.  

Score Prediction: Aggies win a defensive struggle 13-7

% chance to win: 60%  

Ole Miss 11/21

2019 stats: Offense= 445.3 ypg (26th) 

Defense= 417.3 ypg allowed (86th)

Returning Production: Offense 78% (23rd) Defense 64% (61st)

This will be the third team the Aggies face this season with a completely new coaching staff.  Head Coach Lane Kiffin is a brilliant offensive mind and will have some real talent to work with in running quarterback John Rhys Plumlee and running back Jerrion Ealy both returning for their sophomore seasons.  Unfortunately, as dynamic as the Rebels will be on offense, they will be below average on defense.  

Score Prediction: Aggies win 45-31

% chance to win: 70%

#5 LSU 11/28

2019 Stats: Offense= 568.9 ypg (1st) 

Defense= 344.3 ypg allowed (31st)

Returning Production: Offense 30% (128th of 130) Defense 54% (92nd)

As I said to end the season, LSU had the most dominant season of any college football team possibly ever in 2019.  But 2020 will be a completely new team with new offensive and defensive coordinators and 17 starters gone off that national championship team.  Breaking in a new quarterback to replace the great Joe Burrow will be difficult, but it will be even more challenging without the help of Biletnikoff award winner (best wide receiver) Jamar Chase, who opted out a few weeks ago.  The LSU faithful will say they have recruited great classes, but this is the most talent a defending national champion has ever had to replace and I think it will cause LSU to take a step back into what they normally are, a dangerous team that will end up with three losses.  

Score Prediction: LSU wins 34-28

% chance to win: 45% (essentially a toss up, the second swing game)

@ #11 Auburn 

2019 stats: Offense 406.8 ypg (64th)

Defense= 337.0 ypg allowed (27th)

Returning Production: Offense 61% (77th) Defense 60% (78th)

The Auburn Tigers will be having to replace three of the starting four in their secondary and on their defensive line.  They will also be breaking in four new offensive lineman and a new running back.  They will lean on returning quarterback Bo Nix who showed flashes of brilliance at times during his freshman season, but was inconsistent.  The Aggies have lost three in a row to the Tigers and it will take their “A” game to prevent it from being four in a row.  

Score Prediction: Aggies wins a tight one 31-24

% chance to win: 55% (another toss up game, and the final swing game)

This season essentially rides on four games.  The two game stretch to start the year with Alabama in week two and Florida in week three and then the ending stretch of LSU at home and Auburn on the road.  Rather unfortunate that those two stretches are back to back, but find a way to win two out of four and the Aggies will most likely finish 8-2 which would be amazing.  However, I think the most realistic outlook has the Aggies going 7-3 with one big time win in there but still a season away from truly breaking through.